Poll: Obama's Disapproval Ratings Rising In All Key Areas

By Susan Duclos

If there is one thing a sitting President never wants to see it is his approval ratings down while he is trying to get reelected and his disapproval ratings rising as fast as gas prices are. In a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll, majorities either "somewhat" or "strongly" disapprove of Obama's job performance on gas prices (65%), the federal budget deficit (62%), the economy (59%), and the possibility of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons (52%).

Pluralities disapprove of Obama's performance on Energy and Afghanistan as well.

Obama's overall approval is at 46% with just 28 percent "strongly" approving and 18% "somewhat" approving and his disapproval numbers for his overall job performance show 50 disapproving with 39% "strongly" disapproving and 11% "somewhat" disapproving.

While the Washington Post article written about their poll states "Gas prices are a main culprit," four out the six key issues asked about in the poll had clear majorities disapproving of Obama's job performance and two pluralities disapproving. Not a single issue is Obama's approval higher than his disapproval which is indicative of more than just one single issue dragging him down. So stating that gas prices is the "main" culprit instead of just one aspect of the big picture is slightly misleading.

Gas prices do show the highest level of disapproval though, so Obama's recently reported lobbying of Senate Democrats so they would kill a bill that including approval for Keystone, which the majority of Republicans (84%) and Independents (66%), including a plurality of Democrats (49%), are in favor of, does not bode well for Obama who is once again taking a stance that is polar opposite of what Americans want. (Source- Pew Research, via The Hill)

Despite Obama's lobbying efforts to Democrats to reject the bill, 11 Democratic Senators joined with all Republican Senators but failing to get the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster from Democrats. The vote was 56 to 42 according to the Senate roll call.

[Update] NRO shows the breakdown of respondent's ideology:

The sample for this poll splits 31 percent Democrat, 27 percent Republican, 36 percent Independent.

So, even asking more Democrats than Republicans, Obama's disapproval rating is so high in key areas and 50% overall.

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Documenting Failure: Obama Pays $162K+ For Documentary Film To Be Made About Himself

By Susan Duclos

Bloomberg reports that the Barack Obama campaign paid $162,834, according to the January Federal Election Commission filing to have a nearly 30 minute film made, about himself. He has recruited Academy Award winning director Davis Guggenheim to make the campaign films which is to document his first three years in office.

This isn't the first time Obama has used Guggenheim to help him win an election either.

In 2008, the filmmaker directed a biographical film about Obama for the Democratic National Convention. He also was involved in a 30-minute advertisement that the campaign ran on three major broadcast networks in the closing days before the election at a cost of more than $3 million.

The money spent last month covers the major cost of the film’s production, though the campaign isn’t ruling out additional spending for the film, the official said.

One has to wonder how Guggenheim or anyone for that matter is going to highlight what Obama considers his "accomplishments" in the last three years when polling done from June 2009 right up to 2012 shows that he is popular on a personal level but his polices are disapproved of.

By December 2011, in multiple polls, the majority of Americans felt Barack Obama should not be reelected and his overall disapproval numbers rose again. While those overall approval and disapproval numbers see some fluctuation from month to month, the data, according to an Associated Press poll, looks even worse when individual issues are specified.

Going issue by issue, the numbers are even worse for Obama. Only 29% of Americans support Obama signature domestic accomplishment, Obamacare, while 49% oppose the reform. And as the Supreme Court is set to hear a challenge to Obamacare's individual mandate next year, the poll found that 84% of Americans believe the federal government should not have the power to require all Americans to buy health insurance. Only 15% believe the federal government should have that power.

Majorities of Americans also disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy (60% disapprove), health care (55% disapprove), the federal budget deficit (62% disapprove), taxes (52% disapprove), immigration (56% disapprove), unemployment (53% disapprove), and gas prices (57% disapprove). The only domestic issues that Obama is has positive numbers on are the environment (55% approve), energy (50% approve), and education (53%).

It is hard to see how Guggenheim can document what Obama sees as his accomplishments, without highlighting the exact things the American people show high disapproval of.

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Michigan Polls Show Close Contest Between Santorum And Romney

By Susan Duclos

After a dismal Arizona debate performance for Rick Santorum last night, these numbers may change, but a variety of polls from different organizations have Santorum and Romney running neck and neck in Michigan, a state where Romney was the odds on favorite to win since he was born there and his father was a popular governor in for most of the 60's.

American Research Group has Santorum 38 percent and Romney 34 percent. (CNN)
NBC News-Marist has Romney 37 pecent and Santorum with 35 percent. (CNN)
Detroit Free Press has Santorum with 37 percent and Romney with 34 percent. (Detroit Free Press)

Real Clear Politics averages in Michigan has a Santorum lead by 0.6 percent.

Michigan, along with Arizona, holds their primaries on February 28, 2012.

(Full Republican primary/caucus schedule found HERE)

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Multiple Polls Confirm Santorum Surge

By Susan Duclos

It is well known that candidates see a slight uptick in polling when they come off of a win, that's just the way the poll bounces, but Rick Santorum took three for three contests on February 7, 2012, Minnesota and Missouri, then he won Colorado where Mitt Romney was projected to win in a surprise upset.

The bounce, the uptick, turned to a surge for Santorum in national polling and now multiple polling organizations are documenting that surge with poll data.

Gallup shows a 14 percentage point surge, putting Santorum in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney. Romney at 32 percent, Santorum at 30. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul come in third and fourth place respectively 16 and 8 percent..

Pew Research shows a 16 point jump for Santorum since they last polled in mid January, with Santorum at 30 percent and Romney at 28 percent, Gingrich 17 and Paul 12.

CBS News gives Santorum the support of 30 percent of GOP primary voters in their poll, followed by Romney at 27 percent. Ron Paul is now in third at 12 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich at 10 percent.

Losing Colorado was troubling for Mitt Romney, but the polling data for Michigan, a state where Romney was born, where his father served as governor during most of the 1960s, where pundits by and large assumed Romney could not lose, Santorum is now ahead of him in the polls there for the primary being held on February 28, 2012, shows the potential for a devastating loss for Romney, 33 to 27 percent in the ARG poll .

(Full Republican primary/caucus schedule found HERE)

Public Policy Polling gives Santorum an even larger lead over Romney in Michigan, 39 percent to 24 percent. Paul comes in at 12 percent, Gingrich at 11 percent, though neither of those candidates have focused on Michigan or the other contest in Arizona also to be held on February 28, 2012.

The media and the Republican establishment have pushed the Romney is inevitable meme from the start of the campaign season, but Romney's less than conservative history of votes, actions and tax and spend policies from when he was Governor of Massachusetts, may actually make him unelectable, instead of inevitable, among conservatives.

Disclaimer- While I am a Newt Gingrich supporter, I realize we do not always get the candidate of our choice and as a conservative Republican voter, I can say that if Santorum becomes the candidate the GOP nominates to go against Obama I would support him with enthusiasm. If Romney became the nominee, I would vote for him against Obama because anyone could do a better job than Obama has, in my opinion, but I would be far less enthused in doing so.

I am not the only one, states Romney has won the primaries in, Republican turnout has been down compared to turnout in 2008. Romney does not excite the Republican base.

In 2012, Republicans need a candidate that supporters can enthusiastically get behind.

Mitt Romney is not that candidate.

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The Florida GOP Primary Pendulum Starts Swinging Back Towards Gingrich

By Susan Duclos

Polling in Florida over the last two weeks has been like a pendulum swinging back and forth between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney and today, one of the first pollsters to originally see Romney surging to take the lead, Insider Advantage, is now seeing Gingrich surging yet again.

Lets go back a couple weeks and work our way forward.

Florida Polls:

January 17, 2012: Sunshine State News/VSS had Mitt Romney up in Florida by 26 percentage points. Public Policy Polling had Romney up by 15 percentage points.

January 18, 2012, CNN/Time had Romney up in Florida by 24 points.

After Gingrich's South Carolina win, where just days before Romney was up in the polls by a double digit lead, Gingrich came back from behind and beat Romney by 12 percentage points.

January 23, 2012: Both Insider Advantage and Rasmussen showed Newt Gingrich in the lead in Florida by 8 and 9 percentage points, respectively.

January 24, 2012: Public Policy Polling had Gingrich up by 5 points.

January 26, 2012: Insider Advantage along with Rasmussen and Monmouth/Survey USA, all were the first to list Romney ahead in the polls again by 8, 8 and 7 points respectively.

January 29, 2012: Romney's lead expanded to double digits, with Survey USA, NBC News/Marist, Miami Herald/Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen, showing Romney up by double digits ranging from 11 points to 16 points ahead of Gingrich.

We reach January 30, 2012, the day before the Florida primaries and Insider Advantage shows a late swing of that pendulum heading back in Gingrich's direction with Romney ahead only by 5 now.

• Romney 36 percent
• Gingrich 31 percent
• Santorum 12 percent
• Paul 12 percent
• Other/Undecided 9 percent

Matt Towery, chief pollster of InsiderAdvantage told Newsmax, "The race will be tighter than expected."

Towery noted that his poll showed a surge for Romney on Wednesday, with him leading Gingrich by 8 points. The InsiderAdvantage poll was among the first to show Romney's resurgence after his dismal showing in the S. Carolina primary.

The InsiderAdvantage poll was also the first to show Gingrich's rise in S. Carolina and accurately forecast his win there.

"The trend is favoring Gingrich," Towery said, noting that while Romney's lead was still outside the margin of error of 3.8 percent, "It's not by much."

Towery said Gingrich is doing "substantially better" with men than Romney, 38 to 28, but the former House Speaker still faces a "gender gap," as women are still favoring Romney.

"Men are moving in droves to Gingrich and away from Romney," Towery said.

As for Florida's important Latino vote, InsiderAdvantage has Gingrich beating Romney by a large margin, leading 42 percent to 29 percent.

Is this surge for Gingrich to little, too late?

South Carolina taught us that a candidate can be ahead by double digits the week of the primary as Romney was and still end up losing by double digits as Romney lost to Gingrich.

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Herman Cain and Latino Leaders Endorse Newt Gingrich

By Susan Duclos

Another local Florida poll comes out, this one countering the Dixie Strategies/First Coast News poll that had Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney in a dead heat in Florida, the Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald/Tampa Bay Times poll has Mitt Romney ahead of Gingrich by 11 percentage points.

Other polls show the swinging pendulum of polling results is definitely favoring Romney in Florida, while nationwide Gingrich is maintaining his lead over Romney according to NBCNews/Wall Street Journal and Gallup.

Normally, with this type of lead in Florida just days from primary day, one would assume Romney had Florida locked down, but as South Carolina showed the country, it only takes a couple of days for the whole race to turn on in the opposite direction. On the Tuesday before the South Carolina Primary, Romney was up in the polls by 15 points and by the weekend Gingrich was ahead and was declared the winner within minutes of the polls closing.

A reminder of what was written here yesterday:

Pollsters be damned, the only pattern seen over the last two weeks has been a pendulum swinging back and forth and depending on which candidate's side that pendulum is favoring on the day of the primaries, that will be the candidate that takes Florida.

What this tells us is that each state is going to count.

With Santorum having won the Iowa Caucuses, Romney having taken the New Hampshire primary and Gingrich beating Romney by 12 points in the South Carolina primary, every state, every delegate is going to be hard fought.

Just days before January 31, 2012, Primary day, it seems like everyone is throwing themselves into the fray that has become Florida.

The Tampa Tribune endorsed Gingrich in this mornings edition.

Herman Cain jumped into the mix yesterday to "officially and enthusiastically" endorse Newt Gingrich.

Sarah Palin took to her Facebook page to call the Republican establishment "cannibals" for their attacks against Newt Gingrich.

Rudy Giuliani praised Newt Gingrich and criticized Mitt Romney as a flip-flopper.

Actor John Voight, joined Mitt Romney at a rally held at the Fish House in Pensacola, Florida and gave his endorsement.

Chair National Republican Hispanic Alliance Florida, Nancy C. Acevedo joined in with other Hispanic leaders across the country to send an open letter to Mitt Romney on why they cannot support him but are supporting Newt.

Rosario Marin and a group of other Latino leaders endorsed the former House Speaker’s bid for the GOP nomination.

Former Fort Lauderdale mayor and U.S. Congressman E. Clay Shaw and his wife, Emille, endorsed Mitt Romney two days ago.

The TEA Party of Florida, the only political tea party registered with the state Division of Elections, has endorsed Newt Gingrich as has The Florida Tea Party Coalition With Newt, just days after an ABC News report showed that Florida Tea Party supporters find Gingrich's "beating the pavement" more appealing than Romney's paid ads.

The battle for Florida continues............

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Grassfire Nation Tea Party Polling Overwhelmingly Favors Newt Gingrich

By Susan Duclos

Via email link to Liberty News, we see that polling conducted from January 23-25, 2012 puts Newt Gingrich at the top of their favorite list with nearly a two-to-one lead over their second choice, Rick Santorum.

The survey was taken by 29,000 members and hit on a number of questions related to the 2012 GOP primary election. Of the 29,000, 75.7% of respondents said they closely identify with the ideals of the movement, and 17.2% said they are actively a part of the tea party movement.

The margin of error is at 0.56% with 95% confidence for the Grassfire Nation audience. First let’s take a look at the national results. We’ll follow up with some points about the numbers.

Question #1: If the caucus or primary were held in your state today, which of the following Republican presidential candidates would you support?

1. Newt Gingrich – 48.2%
2. Rick Santorum – 24.6%
3. Mitt Romney – 14.8%
4. Ron Paul – 12.4%

Read the rest.

This is confirmed by a new Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday which revealed that evangelicals and Tea Party supporters favor Newt Gingrich in Florida, putting the former House Speaker within two points of Mitt Romney.

A press release describing the poll states Gingrich "leads among white evangelical Christians 43 - 30 percent and among those who consider themselves to be tea party supporters 43 - 28 percent." Each segment makes up roughly a third of primary voters, according to Quinnipiac pollsters, "although there is substantial overlap among those two groups."

This comes six days after a report showing that 100 Tea Party leaders, from 25 different states, stepped up to support Gingrich.

Two recent Florida polls have come out today showing that after overcoming Romney's lead in Florida and taking the lead himself, Gingrich has lost that edge and Romney has once again taken the polling lead.

The fluctuations in Florida polls over the last week alone, show a race that is unpredictable and could go to either candidate by Tuesday, January 31, 2012, which is primary day in Florida.

The RCP average for nationwide polling, as of this moment, has Gingrich up by one percent, showing a very close race. That average changes with every new national polling data that is added.

Click to enlarge- RCP Screen shot taken on 1/26/12

As South Carolina clearly evidenced with Romney leading Gingrich by double digits on a Tuesday and Gingrich overcoming that lead and winning the South Carolina primaries by 12 percentage points by that same Saturday, polling is a snapshot and dependent on the mood of the moment which can turn on a dime and many not making up their minds who to vote for until primary day.

An example is provided by the FiveThirtyEight forecast yesterday where they gave Newt Gingrich a 60 percent chance of taking Florida on Tuesday the 31st, with the caveat pointing to the fact that even that lead was diminished from just two days before.

Further mucking up of the GOP primary process in Florida is that not only are campaigns running negative ads against each other along with SuperPACS that are pro-one candidate or another, but also now liberal groups have jumped into the ad war against Romney, including the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, the nation’s largest public employee union and Service Employees International Union and Priorities USA Action, a pro-Obama super PAC, have also jointly launched a Spanish-language radio campaign in Florida accusing Romney of having “two faces” on immigration issues.

Tonight's debate sponsored by CNN, CNN en Español, The Hispanic Leadership Network and The Republican Party of Florida, at 8pm ET on CNN, just became of prime importance for the vote of the ten percent still undecided and the third of voters saying they could still change their minds.

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Florida Polls Swinging Toward Romney Again

By Susan Duclos

As pollsters, media, candidates and negatives ads flood Florida, polls have see-sawed back and forth, first for Romney, then Gingrich and two polls now show a swing back in Romney's favor.

Rasmussen and Insider Advantage are both giving Romney an eight point lead over Gingrich in the Sunshine state. CNN has Romney leading by two percentage points in Florida.

Gallup's Election 2012 Tracker hasn't updated with yesterday's numbers as of yet, but as of the latest update, Gingrich was still ahead nationally. (The numbers change as the last day polled is added in)

Florida hosts another Republican debate tonight at 8pm ET on CNN

Location: University of North Florida in Jacksonville, FL

Sponsor: CNN, CNN en Español, The Hispanic Leadership Network and The Republican Party of Florida

Participants: Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul


(Headline fixed)

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Two Polls: Gingrich Ahead In Florida- He Should Send Coulter, Romney And Media Thank You Gifts

By Susan Duclos

[Update] Gallup Election 2012 Tracker shows Romney's 10 point lead from just three days ago, collapsed into a one point lead today. More- HERE. [End Update]

Just two days after Newt Gingrich took first place in the South Carolina primary, winning 43 of 46 counties, with a 12 percentage point plus lead over Mitt Romney who just earlier in the week enjoyed a 15 percentage point lead over Gingrich, two new Florida polls shows the Newt surge has followed him to Florida.

Rick Santorum and Ron Paul finished in third and fourth place, respectively in South Carolina.

An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research conducted for NEWSMAX puts Newt at 34.4 percent and Romney at 25.6 percent, Paul at 13.1 percent and Santorum at 10.7 percent, according to the PDF. Media seems to round up and down so the numbers being reported are Gingrich 34 percent, Romney 26 percent, Ron Paul has 13 percent, and Rick Santorum garners 11 percent.

The second poll, by Rasmussen, shows Gingrich with a nine point lead over Romney in Florida, with Newt at 41 percent, Romney 32 percent, Santorum 11 percent and Ron Paul with eight percent. Nine percent remain undecided.

Much like South Carolina, Newt has come from trailing Mitt Romney by double digits in the polls to jumping ahead, according the Rasmussen poll, two weeks ago Romney held a 22 point advantage over Newt Gingrich.

Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.

In response to Newt's surge in the polls and his resounding win in South Carolina, Romney and the Republican establishment are making the same mistake that the liberal media made in South Carolina the week of the primary voting, when they attempted to blindside Newt with an interview with his ex-wife who decided to air dirty laundry of a personal nature.

Newt's a fighter and he does not crouch and defend when he is attacked relentlessly, he acknowledges his flaws then goes straight for the knockout punch.

Newt's Rise

Lets take a look at possible reasons why Newt Gingrich's candidacy, which has been declared dead and resurrected more than once during this campaign season, is on the rise yet again in the polls.

Exit polling from the South Carolina primaries tell us quite a bit.

First off, let's give Newt his due.

He debates well, he pushes the conservative agenda UN-apologetically. He does not kowtow to the Obama media, which the majority of the country see as as biased, and more liberally biased by over 3 to 1 than conservatively biased, he punches them back, usually on live television during debates where all can see him doing it. He keeps his eye on the ball and he attacks Obama's record in every speech, debate and interview.

Those reasons are not the only ones that has helped Newt though, people like Ann Coulter, the Obama media and Mitt Romney himself have helped and they deserve their due as well.

Ann Coulter, by anyone's definition, would be considered a hard core, extreme right conservative, so when she attacks Newt Gingrich with statements like "with Newt Gingrich you throw out the baby but keep the bath water," it stands to reason that moderates are going assume that if Gingrich is not conservative enough for Coulter and company, he must not be an extremist.

Exit poll data shows that Gingrich received 31 percent of the moderate to liberal vote with Romney taking 34 percent. So, moderate to liberal Republicans see Romney as more liberal than Gingrich but thanks to people like Coulter, Newt is not seen as over-the-top conservative.

Newt should thank Ann for her help.

Romney should get credit as well for helping Newt. Using his latest attack as an example here, via The Politico:

Romney continued: “He was investigated over an ethics panel and had to make a payment associated with that and then his fellow Republicans, 88 percent of his Republicans voted to reprimand Speaker Gingrich. He has not had a record of successful leadership.”

First thing that encourages people who do not know the facts to do, was a Google search, because no one truly believes a campaigning politician will tell the full story.

Using keywords "Newt Gingrich Ethics investigation," up comes the Washington Post archived stories on the probe, where we see that 83 of the 84 ethics allegations filed by Democrats were dropped and Gingrich paid a fine on one charge and was reprimanded by Republicans.

Also in that search, Newt's Wiki page comes up and in that we see the Republican Revolution" of 1994, where Gingrich and several other Republicans came up with the "Contract with America", which led to the November 1994 elections seeing Republicans gaining 54 seats and took control of the House for the first time since 1954. Following Gingrich's first two years as House Speaker, the Republican majority was re-elected in the 1996 election, the first time Republicans had done so in 68 years, and the first time simultaneously with a Democratic president winning re-election.

Researching Romney's line of attacks gives as much or more positive information as negative on Gingrich when voters look up Gingrich's leadership abilities.

Add to that, instead of gracefully offering congratulations to Gingrich on the night of his South Carolina primary win, Romney came out, in what should have been his concession speech, and attacked Gingrich, looking more like a sore loser than a presidential candidate, while Gingrich's speech complimented each of the other candidates.

(See both speeches and the Paul and Santorum speeches- HERE.)

This goes back to the Exit Poll Data, where see that when respondents were asked "Who ran the most unfair campaign?, primary voters chose Romney's campaign against Gingrich with 58 percent.

Newt should thank Romney for his help.

Then we come to the Obama media's role in helping Gingrich rise again.

As South Carolina voters clearly showed by giving Newt two standing ovations during his last debate and handing him a huge win on primary night, they see, acknowledge and do not appreciate, the media attempting to influence their vote with last minute hit jobs and attempting to force the Romney is inevitable meme.

We know this by the second standing ovation Gingrich received after he called the debate moderator despicable for starting the debate with a question about an interview with Gingrich's ex-wife saying he wanted an open marriage, and Gingrich blasted the media and the moderator, ending by stating "I am tired of the elite media protecting Barack Obama by attacking Republicans."

Long lasting applause and the second standing ovation of the debate followed that remark and shows that conservative voters prefer a candidate that is willing to call the media out on their bias, their antics and their attempts to force their political desires on to voters.

Newt should thank the liberal media for their help.

Newt Gingrich should really send out some gift baskets to the Obama elite liberal media outlets, Ann Coulter and Mitt Romney, because they have all lifted his candidacy and helped him rise in the polls.


Florida debate schedule details:

January 23, 2012- 9pm ET/8pm CT and 9pm PT on NBC – Live Stream (Live stream from 9pm to 10:30pm ET only)
Location: University of South Florida in Tampa, Florida
Sponsor: The Tampa Bay Times, NBC News, the National Journal and the Florida Council of 100
Participants: Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul

January 26, 2012- 8pm ET on CNN
Location: University of North Florida in Jacksonville, FL
Sponsor: CNN, CNN en Español, The Hispanic Leadership Network and The Republican Party of Florida
Participants: Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul

Florida Primary to be held on January 31, 2012.

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South Carolina Polling, Gingrich Rises To The Top

By Susan Duclos

(Join us tonight for the live blogging/live discussion as we watch and talk about entrance and exit polls and report on primary results)

This week, after two impressive debate performances, Newt Gingrich has seen a solid rise in support in the latest polls conducted in South Carolina.

One example is Rasmussen where on Tuesday, January 17, 2012, Gingrich was trailing Romney by 14 points, yet by Thursday, January 19, 2012, Rasmussen had Gingrich with a two percentage point lead on Romney.

Democratic leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) is another example where on Tuesday the 17th, they had Romney up on Gingrich by 15 percent and by Thursday the 19th, Gingrich was up by six and today, Primary day in South Carolina, Gingrich's lead has expanded to 9 points over Romney.

On Thursday, Insider Advantage had Gingrich up by three and by Friday the Clemson Palmetto Poll has Gingrich up by six percentage points.

FiveThirtyEight projects Gingrich with an 82% chance of winning, Romney at 18%, Paul and Santorum at zero percent chance.

There is no doubt that Gingrich has momentum as voters head in to cast their primary votes, but that does not guarantee a Gingrich win in South Carolina. Polling is a great way to see patterns or in this case which candidate is trending high or falling, but overall, polls are just a snapshot in time. Gingrich happens to be fortunate that this snapshot is taken the day of the primary.

Newt Gingrich has also benefited from Rick Perry dropping out of the race earlier this week and announcing his endorsement for Gingrich at the same time. That very same day MSNBC reported a host of other endorsements for Gingrich, including support from Huntsman and Perry backers.

Yesterday, another endorsement came down the pike for Gingrich, from Chuck Norris. (made big news although I am not quite sure why)

The Obama liberal media, for reasons I explained yesterday, want Mitt Romney to be the candidate to go up against Obama in 2012, so they have predictably thrown a live grenade, so to speak, into the South Carolina primary this week by publishing tidbits of an interview with Gingrich's ex-wife, where she claims Newt wanted to have an "open marriage."

ABC News' live grenade may have backfired on them though, because after news of the interview became public knowledge, Gingrich was asked about it as the first question in Thursday night's South Carolina debate and the audience there gave Gingrich two standing ovations when he ripped CNN's John King, the moderator, a new one, for asking about it at a presidential debate.

It is telling though that one of those standing ovations came when Gingrich took the media and John King to the woodshed and said "I am tired of the elite media protecting Barack Obama by attacking Republicans."

South Carolinian's do not appear to appreciate the media trying to influence their vote.

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Rick Perry Drops Out Of GOP Race, Endorses Newt Who Is 'Honored' To Have Endorsement

By Susan Duclos

While CNN and other reports say that sources tell them Rick Perry will be dropping out of the GOP race for the presidential nomination and will be endorsing Newt Gingrich, it appears that Gingrich is already apprised of the situation and has message via Twitter "Honored to have the support of Gov. Perry. I humbly ask his supporters to join our campaign so we can defeat Obama. "



With Newt Gingrich closing in on Mitt Romney in the South Carolina polls and only three percentage points behind Romney nationwide in the latest Rasmussen poll, on top of today's huge news that Romney did not win the Iowa caucuses and in fact ended up behind Rick Santurum, after certification, by 34 votes, the media push to make Romney the "inevitable" GOP nominee, has taken some major blows.

Via The Politico, we see Romney up seven points in South Carolina unless voters are asked to volunteer the name of a candidate they will vote for without prompting, then Gingrich stays within two points of Romney.

Gingrich has momentum: When voters are asked to volunteer the name of the candidate they plan to vote for without being prompted by a list of names to choose from, Romney’s lead over Gingrich slips to 31 percent to 29 percent. Among those who say they will “definitely” support their candidate of choice, the two are essentially tied, with Romney at 23 percent and Gingrich at 22 percent.

Gingrich's second surge in the polls might very well be the reason behind the new line of attacks coming out against him regarding personal information from a previous marriage.

As a Perry supporter, I am sorry his campaign did not do better than it has, but with the dwindling poll numbers, he is obviously doing what he believes is best for the Republican party as a whole.

For that I salute him.

[Update] Perry: "I am suspending my campaign and endorsing Newt Gingrich for president of the United States."


[Update] Newt's full statement on Perry endorsement, via email:

“I am humbled and honored to have the support of my friend Rick Perry. His selflessness is yet another demonstration of his deep sense of citizenship and commitment to the cause of limited government, historic American values and greater freedom for every American.

“Governor Perry will continue to be a leader for the cause of conservatism, especially for more American energy and for implementing the 10th Amendment across the country.

“South Carolinians have a chance this Saturday to nominate a bold Reagan conservative who will offer a dramatic contrast with President Obama this fall in the general election.

“I ask the supporters of Governor Perry to look at my record of balancing the budget, cutting spending, reforming welfare, and enacting pro-growth policies to create millions of new jobs and humbly ask for their vote

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Conservatives Still Largest Ideological Group In The U.S., Liberals The Smallest

By Susan Duclos

For the third straight year Gallup finds conservative ideology to be the largest group in the U.S. with 40 percent of Americans self identifying as having conservative views. 35 percent of Americans identify as moderate and only 21 percent self identify as liberals.

Gallup also finds that among Democrats, 29 percent consider themselves liberal and only 10 percent say they are "very" liberal". Total: 39 percent of Democrats list themselves as liberal.

51 percent of Republicans consider themselves to be conservative and 20 percent identify as "very" conservative. Total: 71 percent of Republicans list themselves as conservative.


The breakdown for Independents is what should concern Democrats in this election cycle.

Independents -- who make up the largest political group in the country -- have been steadier ideologically than either major party group over the last decade. However, since 2008, the proportion describing themselves as moderate has declined slightly, from 46% to 41%, and the proportion who are conservative has increased slightly, from 30% to 35%.

Currently, the largest segment of independents describe their views as moderate, while significantly more identify as conservative than as liberal, 35% vs. 20%.

Recently a CNN Opinion Research poll found that 50 percent of Americans disapproved of the way Barack Obama has handled his job as president. 38 percent of those that disapprove listed the reason as his being "too liberal" and only 9 percent said he wasn't "liberal enough."

Icing on the cake for Republicans is the recent US News and World Report article that states by 2-to-1 Americans fear an Obama reelection:

As we enter the presidential election year of 2012, what potential news event do you fear the most?

President Obama wins reelection 33%

Taxes will increase 31%

Iran will get a nuclear weapon 16%

Obama will lose reelection 16%

North Korea will attack South Korea 4%

All together: A five percent decrease in moderates coupled with a five percent increase in conservatives added together with another recent Gallup poll showing that Barack Obama is seen as the furthest away from American's ideological views than any of the GOP candidates, and Americans listing an Obama reelection as what they fear most, translates into a huge Democratic headache during this presidential election cycle.

(Changes were made to this post)

List Of States Where Unemployment Is Still At Or Above 8%

By Susan Duclos

According to priority polling, via Polling Report.com, those that include unemployment and jobs in their survey question, the majority of Americans list economy and jobs as their number one priority, which is indicative of unemployment numbers and/or the economy playing a very large part of the decision making process in 2012 when voters will decide whether to reelect Barack Obama or replace him with another president.

The United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics has a page which lists the local area unemployment statistics and the areas still at or above 8 percent as of November, are listed below.

Alabama- 8.7%
Arizona- 8.7%
Arkansas- 8.0%
California- 11.3%
Colorado- 8.0%
Connecticut- 8.4%
D.C.- 10.6%
Florida- 10.0%
Georgia- 9.9%
Idaho- 8.5%
Illinois- 10.0%
Indiana- 9.0%
Kentucky- 9.4%
Michigan- 9.8%
Mississippi- 10.5%
Missouri- 8.2%
Nevada- 13.0%
New Jersey- 9.1%
New York- 8.0%
North Carolina- 10.0%
Ohio- 8.5%
Oregon- 9.1%
Rhode Island- 10.5%
South Carolina- 9.9%
Tennessee- 9.1%
Texas- 8.1%
Washington- 8.7%

Excluding DC, that is over half the states in America who are still at or above 8% unemployment.

Early December it was reported the national "official" unemployment dropped to 8.6%, which did not include the 2.6 million persons marginally attached to the work force, ready, able, needing and willing to work but had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Including those people, the U6 Unemployment according to the Department of Labor is 15.6%.

The reasoning behind the drop in the official unemployment numbers was cause for concern by many experts and was explained by Bloomberg at the time:

The unemployment rate, derived from a separate survey of households, was forecast to hold at 9 percent. The decrease in the jobless rate reflected a 278,000 gain in employment at the same time 315,000 Americans left the labor force.

“You’d like to see the unemployment rate coming down when people are coming into the job market, not disappearing,” James Glassman, senior economist at JP Morgan Chase & Co. in New York, said in a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene.

Using December 2011 polling numbers from Reuters/Ipsos, Associated Press/GfK, Rasmussen Reports and CBS News, the national average shows that 69.8% of the public believes the country in heading in the wrong direction with only 25% thinking the U.S. is heading in the right direction.

Other polling numbers show that 60% of voters disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy and 54% of voters do not believe he has performed his job as president well enough to be reelected. (Source- CBS News)

In November 2012, jobs, the economy and Obama jobs performance in specific areas, will be uppermost in the minds of voters when they cast their vote on whether to reelect Barack Obama or change the direction this country is heading and replace him.

Barack Obama recently said "We’re Better Off Today Than When I Took Over."

Are we?

Are you?

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Voters Leave Political Parties But Independents Lean Toward Conservative

By Susan Duclos


USA Today reports that voters are leaving the Republican and Democratic parties in droves.

A USA TODAY analysis of state voter registration statistics shows registered Democrats declined in 25 of the 28 states that register voters by party. Republicans dipped in 21 states, while independents increased in 18 states.

The trend is acute in states that are key to next year's presidential race. In the eight swing states that register voters by party, Democrats' registration is down by 800,000 and Republicans' by 350,000. Independents have gained 325,000.

There are still more registered Democrats than there are Republicans and Independents have gained significantly.

The good news for Republicans here comes from a Pew Research poll in September 2011, that shows "All Voters" and "Independents" lean towards conservatism, not liberalism.

Click image to enlarge

Swing states are going to be critical in the 2012 presidential election and according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll, in December 2011, "Sixty-one percent of Republicans say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president next year, compared with 47% of Democrats."

Among the most enthusiastic are some of the GOP's core voters: conservatives, middle-aged men and those 50 to 64 years old. Those who are least enthused include core Democratic groups that were critical to Obama's election in 2008, including minorities and younger voters.

If these numbers hold in the swing states, this will largely negate the lead Democrats have in the amount of Democrats registered compared to Republicans, leaving Independents to a very important voting bloc for deciding the 2012 presidential election.

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CBS News Poll: Majority (54 Percent) Don't Think Obama Should Be Reelected

By Susan Duclos



CBS News Polling provides bad news for Barack Obama's chances at being reelected as President in 2012.

The majority of voters, 54 percent, does not think Obama has performed the job he was elected to do, well enough to be elected into a second term with just 41 percent thinking he has.



Furthermore, 54 percent also do not believe Obama shares their priorities with only 41 percent believing he does.

Other findings show that while Obama receives high marks for "handling terrorism" with 57 percent approving, he does not get high marks for "job creation" or the "economy" with 58 percent disapproving of how Obama has handled job creation and 60 percent disapproving of his handling of the economy.

Views on the national economy remain very negative: since early 2008, roughly three in four Americans (and sometimes even more) have said the economy is in bad shape. Now, 86% of Americans characterize the economy as at least somewhat bad, including 42% who say it is very bad. Although the national unemployment rate recently dropped below 9% for the first time since 2009, Americans are skeptical that a recovery is on the horizon. Just 21% think the economy is getting better, and 39% think it is getting worse, up from 32% last month.

More:

• 68 percent believe Obama has not made any real progress on fixing the economy with only 28 percent believing he has made progress.

• 57 percent think Obama has worked hard to bring about change but a plurality, 48 percent, believe Obama has divided the country in doing so with only 37 percent saying he brought the country together.

• 51 percent of voters continue to disapprove of Obama's "signature accomplishment", Obamacare, with only 35 percent approving. 13 percent think Obamacare will help them personally while 32 percent saying it will hurt them and 46 percent stating it will have no effect.

• 75 percent think the country is on the wrong track and 21 percent say it is going in the right direction.

• 46 percent disapprove of Obama's overall job performance with 44 percent approving.

Worth noting that the CBS News poll's disapproval figures Obama do not match the national average. Gallup shows 51 percent disapproving, CNN/Opinion Research shows 54 percent disapproving, Fox News shows 51 percent disapproving and Rasmussen, the only one that uses likely voters as their sample, has 55 percent disapproving.

Once again we see that voters like Obama personally but do not see his likability translated into capability.

CBS News analysis of polling results found here.

Full CBS News poll results (PDF)

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Obama Goes From One Of The Most Influential People To One of The Least

By Susan Duclos

In April 2011, TIME listed Barack Obama as one of the top 100 most influential people in the world but news reported by TVNewser shows that GQ (originally Gentlemen's Quarterly) has Barack Obama listed as one of the least influential people alive out of a list of 25.

Less than a year away from the November 2012 presidential election finds Obama in a bit of quandary, not only is he being seen as less influential at home and around the world, but with a flailing economy and high unemployment, polls are seeing a downward pattern as well as a loss of support from key voting blocs compared to his numbers in 2008.

Via National Journal:

Only 44 percent of registered voters approve of Obama’s performance, while half of the country disapproves of his performance, according to the survey. His job-approval rating is only at 42 percent among independents.

White voters continue to view Obama negatively -- just 37 percent back the job he has done as president, the poll found, including only 34 percent of blue-collar whites. The numbers are better among whites with a college degree –- 42 percent support Obama –- but that’s still a notable drop-off from the support he received in 2008. Then, 47 percent of whites with a college degree voted for Obama, according to exit polling.

Obama is also suffering a significant dropoff in support among Hispanics: 56 percent approve of the president’s performance. He won 67 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2008. The contest for the Latino vote, which is concentrated in battleground states like Colorado and Nevada, will be pivotal.

Other numbers in the survey paint a similarly challenging picture for Obama. Only 45 percent of voters think he deserves reelection; 48 percent think he doesn’t. He has a dismal 33 percent approval rating on the economy.

Most damaging, 81 percent of respondents say they are somewhat or very dissatisfied with the country’s direction – including 50 percent who say they are very dissatisfied. That “right track, wrong track” question has historically been a key indicator of a president’s reelection chances.

With the Solyndra and Fast and Furious scandals still being investigated, reports from the CBO that Obama's stimulus plan cost more, did less and actually harms the economy in the long run combined with Obama vehemently pitching for more stimulus (just not calling it stimulus), Obamacare taking front page news again with the Supreme Court agreeing to hear constitutionality arguments and a potential judgment just months before the 2012 elections and Obama's disapproval ratings hitting new highs, Obama is facing an uphill battle in his reelection campaign.

Even Democratic pollsters are telling Obama to abandon his 2012 bid for reelection.

Perhaps most indicative of the Obama campaigns desperation at this point is the Hail Mary they are throwing in sending VP Joe Biden to three key states, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, believing that "Biden might be more of an asset to President Barack Obama's re-election campaign than the president himself."

The Biden plan underscores an uncomfortable reality for the Obama team. A shaky economy and sagging enthusiasm among Democrats could shrink the electoral map for Obama in 2012, forcing his campaign to depend on carrying the 67 electoral votes up for grabs in the three swing states.

Obama won all three states in 2008. But this time he faces challenges in each, particularly in Ohio and Florida, where voters elected Republican governors in the 2010 midterm elections.

The president sometimes struggles to connect with Ohio and Pennsylvania's white working-class voters, and with Jewish voters who make up a core constituency for Florida Democrats and view him with skepticism.

They are sending the man, Biden, who recently answered (video at link) the question of whether the Republican Party was strong enough to beat Obama, said "Oh, absolutely! Absolutely, it’s strong enough to beat both of us...."

This is the man who said "we can't win without Florida" at a time when Florida polls showed Obama with 57 percent disapproval and 53 percent believing Obama doesn't deserve a second term.

Generic Republican candidates are ahead of Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania as well.

Headlines highlighting polls showing Obama vs (insert name here) in head-to-head match ups have no predictive value until after the GOP primaries when one candidate is chosen to run against Obama in 2012 and Conservatives and Conservative-leaning Independents have a chance to coalesce behind the nominee of choice.

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Waiting

On Election Day

This is the polling place where I went to vote this morning before work.



Einstein theorized that gravity distorted reality but he was wrong - politics does.




When I went downtown to catch the bus to UMass I saw this battered sign sitting in the trash, where it belongs.



Good thing I left extra early because voting made me miss the bus. Oh well, I guess I'll just schlep around downtown and do a little window shopping until the next bus comes.

Bumper stickers are big sellers around these parts. Nearly everyone has got one or two on their car or bike.



Hey, need a green wig?



This sextoy store is not shy about announcing its presence.



I guess this was inevitable - official Grateful Dead psychedelic sneakers.



Good thing Jerry Garcia was cremated instead of buried, because if he saw how commercialized the Dead have become since he died he'd be spinning in his grave - although no doubt twirling to a jammy beat.

I got sick of looking at things I couldn't buy, so I stopped in at the beloved Haymarket for a coffee to go to drink on the bus ride.



In all it was not a bad start to the day.

Latest Polls from Real Clear Politics


Obama: Approve - 51.1% Disapprove - 43.9%
Congress: Approve - 24.8% Disapprove 66.4%
Direction of Country: Right Direction - 38.8% Wrong Direction - 55.5%

Good Media Advice



When you have a severe recession and you have something transformational as we now see unfolding with the Web, you have to do two things. One, you have to address the immediate circumstances, which means belt tightening. But at the same time, you have to invest for the future. And thankfully, 12 years ago, when we went online as did everyone else, we did not make the mistake that many print publishers made, and that was to think you take the printed page, throw it online, and there you have your electronic publishing. When Thomas Edison invented movies, some people thought you’d film a stage play and that was a feature film. No. It’s an entirely different medium.

- Steve Forbes of Forbes Magazine.

Today's Video

I've misplaced something.

Local Polls

The Mayoral Races



WGGB-TV runs a poll every day on a subject related to the news. They are unscientific polls because the people who participate are self selected. However they are not completely unenlightening, since people participate who may never otherwise be contacted by a pollster and there is also software in place to prevent people from voting more than once from the same computer. Lately they have been running polls on local mayoral races, with some interesting results. For example, here's the totals for their poll on the Springfield mayoral race between incumbent Dom Sarno and challenger Bud Williams.



Sarno - 59%
Williams - 20%
Other - 31%

Not exactly encouraging news for City Councilor Williams. What is interesting is that a third of the voters appear to wish that they had a third alternative, suggesting that many people would prefer someone to vote for other than the two actually running.

A similar poll was held this week for the hotly contested mayoral race in Northampton. However the results suggest that a landslide defeat is in store for incumbent M. Clare Higgins.



Higgins - 27%
Bardsley - 59%
Other - 14%

Although the Channel 40 polls do provide good fuel for speculation, ultimately the only poll that matters is on Election Day. Personally, I never forgave Channel 40 for cancelling the Admiral and Swabby Show.




Obama Still Falling

Meanwhile the national polls have nothing but more bad news for President Barack Obama, with a dramatic drop in his approval ratings according to the prestigious Gallup Poll:



PRINCETON, NJ -- In Gallup Daily tracking that spans Barack Obama's third quarter in office (July 20 through Oct. 19), the president averaged a 53% job approval rating. That is down sharply from his prior quarterly averages, which were both above 60%.

In fact, the 9-point drop in the most recent quarter is the largest Gallup has ever measured for an elected president between the second and third quarters of his term, dating back to 1953.

More generally, Obama's 9-point slide between quarters ranks as one of the steepest for a president at any point in his first year in office. The highest is Truman's 19-point drop between his third and fourth quarters, followed by a 15-point drop for Gerald Ford between his first and second quarters. The largest for an elected president in his first year is Bill Clinton's 11-point slide between his first and second quarters.

The Future Predicted



Cool Local Advertisements

A corny but cute ad for Northampton's Turn It Up.



Here's a better one, featuring a Rod Stewart album I used to own as well as someone I was in detox with.



Hamp Hike

I got to the bus stop today just as the bus to Amherst was pulling away! Oh well, all that did was give me a half hour to take a little walk down the street. Camera in hand, I headed towards Smith College.



There I saw this clever definition of Smith.



As well as these sidewalk guilt monsters.



Heading into the heart of town, I checked out the newly painted mural on Kirkland Avenue, othewise universally known as "the ally behind Thornes."



Turtle-like beings now climb the fire escape.



A psychedelic owl looks down upon all.



Less professional scrawlings adorn the opposite wall, the better to go with the sewer motif.



This is the kind of sign you only see in New England.



A parking meter expresses a preference.



Finally the next bus arrives, and I snap this pic out the window as we cross the mighty Connecticut.



Today's Video

Another lost masterpiece resurfaces:

Paul Kantner : Guitar, vocals,
Grace Slick : Piano, vocals
Jack Casady : Bass
Jerry Garcia : Lead Guitar
Bill Kreutzmann: Drums
David Crosby : Guitar,vocals
Graham Nash : Vocals

No light shines on the mind protected
No light shines on the fangs neglected.