Obamacare May Have Cost Democrats The House. Will It Cost Them The WH And Senate In 2012?

By Susan Duclos

Short and sweet, via The Washington Post:

The study, by five professors from institutions across the country, looks at the health care bill alongside other contentious votes in the 111th Congress and determines that, more so than the stimulus or the cap-and-trade energy bill, it cost Democrats seats. In fact, they lost almost exactly the number of seats that decided the majority.

The study ran 10,000 simulations of a scenario in which all vulnerable Democrats voted against the health care bill and found that the rejections would have saved Democrats an average of 25 seats, which would have made the House parties close to a tie. (Republicans won 63 seats overall, but the study suggests around 25 of them would have been salvaged.)

In 62 percent of the simulations, Democrats were able to keep the House.

The Supreme Court hears arguments this month on the constitutionality of Obamacare aka Affordable Care Act of 2010, specifically the individual mandate, with expectations of a ruling in June or July, just months before the 2012 elections where Barack Obama is campaigning to be reelected and 23 out of 33 Senate contests are for Democratically held seats.

In February 2012, Gallup found that 72 percent of Americans believe the individual mandate- the government’s requirement for Americans to purchase health insurance — is unconstitutional.

Worse yet, even among those that thought the healthcare law was a good thing, 54 percent believe the individual mandate is unconstitutional.

Worst of all, even Obama's and Democratic politician's base, the majority of Democrats come in at 56 percent saying it is unconstitutional.

The Supreme Court timing is guaranteed to bring Obamacare right back to front and center of the political campaign season, which leads one to wonder if Obamacare will factor highly enough among other issues to possibly cost Democrats control of the Senate and the White House.

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Obama To House And Senate Democrats: No Money For You!

By Susan Duclos


Yes, I paraphrased, but from The Politico article it is quite accurate as the writer describes Obama's message to House and Senate Democrats who privately sought as much as $30 million combined from Obama for America and the Democratic National Committee — a replay of the financial help they received from Obama in 2008 and 2010, which is "you're on your own."

But that’s not going to happen, top Obama aides Jim Messina and David Plouffe told Reid and Pelosi in back-to-back meetings on Capitol Hill on Thursday, according to sources familiar with the high-level talks. It was a stark admission from a presidential campaign once expected to rake in as much as $1 billion of just how closely it is watching its own bottom line.

Messina and Plouffe told the two Hill leaders that there would be no cash transfers to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee from OFA or the DNC, at least not before Election Day, the sources said.

Obama required Senate Democrats to put themselves out on a weak limb time and time again as he pushed them to pass legislature such as Obamacare, knowing they were doing so in direct opposition to voter's desires, knowing they would be held accountable as House Democrats were in the 2010 election which produced the biggest turnover in seats from Democratic to Republican than had been seen on decades and resulted a large majority for Republicans who took control of the House.

Now it is 2012 and 23 Senate democrats are on the chopping block compared to only 10 Republican Senate seats and all those Democrats that shoved Obama's agenda down the throats of Americans over the last three years are now being left to hang by Barack Obama.

Hill Democrats won’t be seeing much of Obama at their own fundraisers this year, either. Obama has offered to do one money event each for the DCCC and DSCC. OFA officials suggested Vice President Joe Biden do two fundraisers for each campaign committee. Obama will instead send out an email and fundraising letter solicitations for both committees.

Nor, for that matter, have Obama or Biden committed to do events for individual Democratic lawmakers. That’s true even though 23 Democrat-held Senate seats are up for grabs in a competitive battle for control of that chamber. And no fundraisers have been scheduled yet for House and Senate Democrats with Cabinet officials, usually a staple of an election-year calendar for incumbent presidents looking to boost their party’s prospects.

Dog eat dog Democrats and to Obama, as we have seen over the last three years, Obama's agenda and now reelection comes before everything and everyone else.

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Video- Boehner: "We're Here, We're Ready to Work" to Extend Full-Year Payroll Tax Relief

By Susan Duclos

Text:

BOEHNER: “Yesterday the House voted to reject the Senate bill and ask for a conference with the Senate where we could resolve the differences between the two houses. I’ve appointed the eight men and women sitting here with the Majority Leader and I to be our negotiators. We’re here. We’re ready to go to work. And we’re hoping that Senate Democrats will appoint negotiators, come to the table, and resolve these differences. I think it’s important to note that the president, bipartisan leaders in the House and bipartisan leaders in the Senate, have all really asked for the same thing over the course of the last several months: let’s extend the payroll tax credit for a year. And all we’re asking for is to get the Senate members over here to work with us to resolve our differences so we can do what everybody wants to do: extend the payroll tax credit for the next year. I’m hoping that they’re ready to work as we are.”

Video below:




Text via Speakers Blog.


Related:

"FLASHBACK: Remember In 2008 When House Dems Turned Out The Lights While The GOP Were Still Talking?"

"Boehner to Obama: Call the Senate Back to Washington"

"House Votes To Send Payroll Tax Cut Bill To Conference."

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FLASHBACK: Remember In 2008 When House Dems Turned Out The Lights While The GOP Were Still Talking?

By Susan Duclos

Liberals are throwing a hissy fit across the blogosphere because Republicans called an end to a pro-forma session and shut the microphones down while Democrats were attempting to force an up-or-down vote on the Senate-passed payroll tax holiday extension. Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) continued talking even without the mics on.

Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) presided over the brief session, and after the Pledge of Allegiance closed the session and said the next pro forma would be on Friday. As Fitzpatrick gaveled the session closed, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) asked to be recognized to speak, but Fitzpatrick did not recognize him. Hoyer loudly protested the move as Fitzpatrick walked out of the House.

"You're walking out, you're walking away, just as so many Republicans have walked away from middle-class taxpayers, the unemployed and … those who will be seeking medical assistance from their doctors.

"We regret, Mr. Speaker, that you have walked off the platform without addressing the issue of critical importance to this country," he added.

Hoyer then yielded to House Budget Committee ranking member Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who began to speak to a chamber that had no presiding officer. C-SPAN's coverage of the floor ended moments after Van Hollen started speaking.

Funny but if memory serves me right, when Pelosi and crew ran the House, liberals weren't complaining when Democrats did the very same thing back in 2008 when the shoe was on the other foot, so to speak.

FLASHBACK 2008: "House Dems turn out the lights but GOP keeps talking"

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the Democrats adjourned the House, turned off the lights and killed the microphones, but Republicans are still on the floor talking gas prices.

Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and other GOP leaders opposed the motion to adjourn the House, arguing that Pelosi's refusal to schedule a vote allowing offshore drilling is hurting the American economy. They have refused to leave the floor after the adjournment motion passed at 11:23 a.m., and they are busy bashing Pelosi and her fellow Democrats for leaving town for the August recess.

At one point, the lights went off in the House and the microphones were turned off in the chamber, meaning Republicans were talking in the dark. But as Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz..) was speaking, the lights went back on and the microphones were turned on shortly afterward.

But C-SPAN, which has no control over the cameras in the chamber, has stopped broadcasting the House floor, meaning no one was witnessing this except the assembled Republicans, their aides, and one Democrat, Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (D-Ohio), who has now left.

[...]

Democratic aides were furious at the GOP stunt, and reporters were kicked out of the Speaker's Lobby, the space next to the House floor where they normally interview lawmakers.

"You're not covering this, are you?" complained one senior Democratic aide. Another called the Republicans "morons" for staying on the floor.

Update: The Capitol Police are now trying to kick reporters out of the press gallery above the floor, meaning we can't watch the Republicans anymore. But Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) is now in the gallery talking to reporters, so the cops have held off for a minute. Clearly, Democrats don't want Republicans getting any press for this episode. GOP leaders are trying to find other Republicans to rotate in for Blunt so reporters aren't kicked out.

Who says political blogging can't be very entertaining?

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House Votes To Send Payroll Tax Cut Bill To Conference

By Susan Duclos

The House of Representatives passed a motion to send the payroll tax cut issue to conference to be hammered out for passage. Roll call found here.

“The Senate did produce a bill, and today Republicans will move to conference to reconcile the two measures,” the aide said shortly before the vote. “That’s how Congress works, and we see no reason to stray from regular order. This is the system our founders gave us, so let’s take the next 10 days and make it work.”

The Senate passed a two-month extension of the payroll tax on Saturday, and the House passed its own year-long extension last Tuesday.

The Speaker of the House website explains:

As the House continues its pursuit of a full-year extension of payroll tax relief to help families and small businesses today, the two-month extension proposed by Senate Democrats is being called “not workable.” The National Payroll Reporting Consortium, non-partisan tax experts, released a report saying Senate Democrats’ short-term bill could create “substantial problems, confusion, and costs” – more uncertainty – for job creators already struggling in President Obama’s economy. Here’s a look at some of the coverage of their report:

• SHORT-TERM SENATE BILL “NOT WORKABLE”: “As lawmakers fought, payroll specialists told Congress on Monday that the two-month change in Social Security payroll tax rates envisioned in the Senate bill was not workable.” (New York Times, 12/20/11)

• “SUBSTANTIAL PROBLEMS, CONFUSION, & COSTS”: “Pete Isberg, president of the NPRC today wrote to the key leaders of the relevant committees of the House and Senate, telling them that ‘insufficient lead time’ to implement the complicated change mandated by the legislation means the two-month payroll tax holiday ‘could create substantial problems, confusion and costs affecting a significant percentage of U.S. employers and employees.’” (ABC News, 12/19/11)

• “UNPRECEDENTED COMPLICATIONS”: “Payroll processors are warning that a two-month payroll tax-cut extension passed by the U.S. Senate would be difficult to implement. ... [T]he Senate-backed two-month extension of the tax cut that could create unprecedented complications.” (Bloomberg, 12/20/11)

• “CANNOT BE IMPLEMENTED PROPERLY”: “Officials from the policy-neutral National Payroll Reporting Consortium, Inc. have expressed concern to members of Congress that the two-month payroll tax holiday passed by the Senate and supported by President Obama cannot be implemented properly.” (ABC News, 12/19/11)

Click here to learn more about the House-passed bill which extends payroll tax relief (for a full year, as requested by the president), reforms and extends unemployment insurance, and includes bipartisan measures that support private-sector job creation. The Senate bill, on the other hand, “is going to cause job creators all kinds of problems,” as Speaker Boehner said last night.

That’s why the House will appoint negotiators today to begin working with Senate Democrats -- so Congress can get this important work done before the end of the year. “When there’s a disagreement between the two chambers we sit down in a conference and resolve those differences,” said Speaker Boehner. And that’s exactly what the House will do.

Harry Reid is refusing to appoint negotiators.

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Incompetent Senate Passes Temporary Payroll Tax Cut That Cannot Be Implemented According To Experts

By Susan Duclos



The House passed it's version of the payroll tax cut, which Obama threatened to veto, then the Senate passed their version, which Obama favored, and there has been quite a bit of back and forth rhetoric buzzing around the Internet after word came down the pike that the House would not pass the Senate's version.

Senate majority leader Harry Reid is refusing to call the Senate back to town to re-open negotiations, stating "I will not re-open negotiations until the House follows through and passes this agreement that was negotiated by Republican leaders, and supported by 90 percent of the Senate."

That rhetoric is moot at this point because the Senate and Obama's favored version isn't workable, according to experts from the policy-neutral National Payroll Reporting Consortium, Inc, who say the "two-month payroll tax holiday passed by the Senate and supported by President Obama cannot be implemented properly."

ABC News links to the letter the NPRC wrote to key leaders of the relevant committees of the House and Senate explaining to them the problem with the bill the Senate passed.

Pete Isberg, president of the NPRC today wrote to the key leaders of the relevant committees of the House and Senate, telling them that “insufficient lead time” to implement the complicated change mandated by the legislation means the two-month payroll tax holiday “could create substantial problems, confusion and costs affecting a significant percentage of U.S. employers and employees.”

Worth noting the House's version would have extended the payroll tax cut through the end of last year while the Senate's version kicks the can down the road for only two months when the issue would have needed to be revisited again.

An update from National Review Online informs us that the National Association of Wholesale-Distributors has also written to Congress telling them they "concur with the conclusion of the NPRC."

“A two-month extension of the current reduced payroll tax rate,with the implicit rise in that rate in the first quarter of 2011, would exacerbate and escalate the uncertainty about fiscal policies that has inhibited business activity and slowed economic recovery and job creation for the last several years,” the letter states.

The level of incompetence being shown in the Senate regarding this bill that cannot even be implemented properly in the short time frame it is set up for instead of a long term solution, makes one wonder why American taxpayers are even paying these clowns.

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John Boehner Is Not Supposed To 'Control' GOP House Representatives. That Is NOT His Job Description

By Susan Duclos

One of my biggest complaints when Nancy Pelosi was Speaker of the House is how she would strong arm and force her members to vote for legislation whether they agreed with it or not and whether the vote cast by a particular lawmaker represented the will of his/her constituents or not. She insisted her members vote in favor of what she wanted, what she, Obama and Reid wanted. She forced her members to vote for "party" rather than represent those that elected them.

For example, February 2010, Pelosi was quoted, by multiple media sources as telling her colleagues to back a major overhaul of U.S. health care aka Obamacare, even if it threatens their political careers.

Her comments somewhat echoed those of President Obama, who said at the end of last week's bipartisan health care summit that Congress should act on the issue and let voters render their verdicts. "That's what elections are for," he said.

Obama was right and in November 2010, there was indeed an election, the midterms, and Democrats in the House, lost 63 seats and voters handed control of the House of Representatives to Republicans and fired Nancy Pelosi from her Speaker of the House position.

So, when I read in The Politico a quote from Senator Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.)that says "If Speaker Boehner were fully in charge, we wouldn’t constantly see this kind of brinksmanship, but he doesn’t have control of his troops in the House," I think to myself, damn straight he doesn't "control" the members of the House, that is not his job and thank heavens he is not Nancy Pelosi who thought that was in her job description.

Democrats may be under the impression that their "job" is to walk in total lockstep with their leadership but a member of Congress is elected locally by those he is supposed to represent, not to do as told and not think for themselves.

Boehner's job is Speaker of the House, not dictator, and perhaps Schumer and Democrats should read the job description of Speaker instead of thinking that how Pelosi did things, forcing members to vote against their constituents, is not part of that job description.

The Speaker does, however, typically presides over special joint sessions of Congress in which the House hosts the Senate. The Speaker exerts power over the legislative process by setting the House legislative calendar determining when bills will be debated and voted on. The Speaker often utilizes this power to help fulfill his or her responsibility of making sure bills supported by the majority party are passed by the House. The Speaker also serves as chair of the majority party's House steering committee.

If the party in majority is not supportive of a bill passed by the Senate, or the language used in the bill passed by the Senate, then it is not Boehner's job to force them to go along with it. It is his job to see to it the bill's language becomes language supported by the majority party so it can be passed.

The main role of members of the U.S. House of Representatives is to serve their constituents through the process of writing legislation.

Controlling members of his party is not what John Boehner's job entails, that is what Nancy Pelosi did in her term as Speaker and she was replaced by election and many of those that walked in lockstep with what she ordered them to do, were replaced as well.

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Joke Of The Day: Pelosi: 'Dems Can Take Back House'

By Susan Duclos

While every pundit, forecaster and handicapper was predicting a GOP wave in the November 2010 elections, Nancy Pelosi was denying reality showing how disconnected she was from the public she was sworn to represent as Speaker of the House.

Flashback To Pelosi Quotes:

May 2010 "Bring it on: Pelosi predicts 'for sure' that Dems will win House."

July 2010: "I don't think there's much likelihood [of Democrats losing the House], but anytime the White House wants to lower expectations, that's OK with me."

October 2010: Pelosi defiant on keeping the House, "I would rather be where we are than where they are."

October 2010: "Vilified or Not, Pelosi Insists She’s Winning." (Is that where Charlie Sheen got the "winning" phrase?)

November 2010: "The early returns show so far that a number of Democrats are coming out and we are on pace to maintain the majority in the House of Representatives," said Pelosi."

After 2010 Midterm Elections Democrats in the House lost 63 seats giving the majority to Republicans, suffered a net loss of Senate seats and Republicans gained Governorships across the country.

Click image to enlarge

Fast forward to the "joke of the day"- Today's headline from The Hill: "Pelosi: Dems can take back House."

As Michelle Malkin would say .... snort!

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