Congressional Update

The Massachusetts conservative website Red Mass Group has been running a series of analysis recently of the 2010 Western Mass races for U.S. Congress. This is what they have to say, with my own two cents thrown in as well. The First Congressional District is currently represented by Democrat John Olver, who is being challenged by Republican Bill Gunn and third party candidate Michael Engel.

DISTRICT ONE



Prediction: John Olver (D) 70%, Bill Gunn (R) 25%, Michael Engel (I) 5%.
Unfortunately, this is not a good district for a Republican and Bill Gunn has neither the financial resources nor the history of electoral success at this time to have a credible chance to win.

Here's my analysis of their analysis - It is true that Olver will be hard to beat in this very liberal district, but I don't think Gunn's prospects are as bleak as they claim. While it's true that Gunn lacks name recognition and experience, indications are that this is a year when being an outsider can be a virtue. Gunn will also get a boost from third party candidate Michael Engel, a candidate who, incredibly enough, is running to the left of Olver. Therefore liberals who want to cast a protest vote in this anti-incumbent year, but who are repelled by Gunn's tea partyish views, can still desert Olver and cast a protest vote for Engel without compromising their leftist ideology. So if Engel ends up riding the anti-incumbent wave enough to reach double digits, Gunn may well find himself within striking distance of an upset victory.

To read the full report on District One click here.

Surprisingly the Second District is the more hotly contested of the Western Mass contests, with longtime incumbent Richard Neal facing two strong possible GOP challengers. Here's what Red Mass Group has to say:

DISTRICT TWO

Republican Primary Prediction: Tom Wesley 62% Jay Fleitman 38%
General Election Prediction: Richard Neal (D) 59%, Tom Wesley (R) 41%.

The Massachusetts 2nd Congressional district has been trending more Republican over time. The towns in south Worcester County become more Republican and a larger percentage of the district. In 2008, it voted slightly more Republican than the 3rd congressional district, formerly held by Peter Blute (R). Both Wesley and Fleitman have quality resumes and are running real campaigns. The Republican nominee will have raised six figures, done a fair amount of retail politics, and caught a good year in 2010. Unfortunately, Neal's near $3 Million on hand will prove difficult to overcome. I expect a decent showing, but not victory at this time.

My analysis of their analysis: Before Neal can be challenged there will be a September primary where either Fleitman or Wesley will be eliminated. I agree with Red Mass Group that Wesley is probably ahead, but not by the nearly two to one margin they claim. Whoever wins, it is important that the primary leave no hard feelings, because the GOP will have to be fully united to have any chance to oust as firmly entrenched an incumbent as Neal. The real trick for the GOP nominee is to cut significantly into Neal's powerbase in Springfield, where the city's corrupt Democrat Party machine is certain to deliver a lopsided electoral landslide on Neal's behalf. A similar landslide is likely for Neal in Northampton by the non-corrupt but partisanly passionate Democrat organization, although if Northamptonite Fleitman is the nominee he may be able to cut into that a little as a hometown favorite. Whoever the nominee is, the GOP's goal will be to try to keep Neal's expected Springfield/Hamp landslides to a low enough margin so that GOP victories in the Republican leaning suburbs can compensate for their big city losses. It's not an impossible feat - Scott Brown carried the district in the special election in January, despite being crushed in both Springfield and Northampton, by successfully carrying nearly all of the suburbs and hilltowns.

To read the entire Second District report click here.

Speaking of Scott Brown, I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw on the bus the other day a person proudly displaying a Martha Coakley sticker. I thought everyone scraped those off in embarrassment long ago.



Here's a song about Amherst set amidst the power lines of Pelham.

Big Article

Fleitman's Progress

Senator Scott Brown and Dr. Jay Fleitman

I'm pleased to see that there was a major article yesterday in the Hampshire Gazette about Dr. Jay Fleitman, one of two Republican challengers to longtime incumbent Congressman Richard Neal. I was happy because as near as I can remember it is the first time in over a decade that I've seen any local newspaper devote that much ink to anything political involving Neal. Perhaps that's not so surprising, considering that Neal has not had to defend his seat in an election since 1996.

Unfortunately the article was obviously biased against Fleitman, especially in a sidebar called Where Fleitman Stands in which Fleitman was allowed to comment directly on some of the issues. However in an odd journalistic twist, commentaries were inserted after Fleitman's quotes to refute what he was saying. For example on the subject of the failed stimulus bill the first paragraph quotes Dr. Fleitman:

Fleitman opposed last year's $787 billion spending package, calling it "more of a laundry list of pork" that Democrats had been waiting to fund. "I would have done this in a much more limited fashion," he says. "I've been through a lot of recessions, and some have been much worse ... I'm convinced the economy would have bounced back on its own."

Then what follows in the very next paragraph are these Democrat Party talking points:

Democrats such as Neal have argued that drastic measures like the stimulus bill and the bank bailout were needed last year; some economists said an even bigger stimulus bill would have been better. President Obama recently said unemployment might be 20 percent today had the bill not passed, and he criticized some Republican legislators for opposing the bill but then attending ribbon-cutting ceremonies in their districts for construction projects funded by the legislation.

Lest anyone think that the Hampshire Gazette was merely trying to be balanced, on that very same day elsewhere in the paper, an interview with Congressman Neal features quotes by Neal on the issues in a similar format. These are presented with absolutely no rebuttal paragraphs inserted after Neal's comments, as was done in the Fleitman article. Apparently the Hampshire Gazette feels that the Republican challenger should not be allowed to present his views unless tempered by the insertion of rebuttals, but the Democrat incumbent is allowed to make any comments he wishes completely unchallenged.

The interview with Neal is the longest interview I've seen in any local paper with him in over a decade. It is also interesting that Neal's interview appears the same day as the Fleitman profile. Is that a mere coincidence? Just last week an incident occurred where someone representing Neal contacted the Jim Polito radio show, which is heard in the Worcester branch of the district, and demanded to be allowed on the air because the other one of Neal's challengers, social conservative Tom Wesley, had been on earlier. Did the Neal camp catch wind of the Fleitman article and demand to appear in the Gazette just as they did at the Polito Show? Whatever the case may be, it is indeed intriguing that both articles appeared on the exact same day.

Yet despite the Fleitman article's generally biased tone, it is important simply because it treats the race as what it really is - the biggest and most important local contest coming up this election year in Western Mass. It would be advantageous to Neal to keep this race below the media radar screen, the better to help him just glide back into office by force of habit. The Hampshire Gazette's willingness to print such a high-profile article on one of Neal's challengers shows that Neal's re-election bid will apparently not be helped this year by the media black-out that it usually gets.

To read the entire article by Steve Pfarrer on Dr. Fleitman click here.

On the Bus

Great news from the Pranksters! Ken Babbs novel based on his experiences as a helicopter pilot in Vietnam, 48 years in the works, is finally finished and been sold to a publisher. Here's the Captain himself to tell you all about it, as well as a little anecdote about the time he and Ken Kesey took the bus to Las Vegas.



My friend told me once that he could tell what kind of a person somebody was by what car they drove. I scoffed at that theory, saying, "What about me? I don't even own a car!"

My friend looked at me with a sly grin and replied, "Actually that tells me a great deal."

The bus came by....




....and I got on, that was how it all began.



Yellow peace-house out the bus window.



For a Laugh

Abe Lincoln himself showed up at the Longmeadow Republican Town Committee the other night. Here is the president greeting Mary and Dean Rogeness.



This is a local satire of Wednesday's non-snow event.



A man in a Massachusetts supermarket tries to buy half a head of lettuce.
The young produce assistant tells him that they sell only whole heads of
lettuce, but the man persists and asks to see the manager.

The boy says he'll ask his manager about it.

Walking into the back room, the boy said to his manager, "Some jerk
wants to buy half a head of lettuce." As he finished his sentence, he
turned to find the man standing right behind him, so he added, "And this
gentleman has kindly offered to buy the other half."

The manager approved the deal, and the man went on his way.

Later the manager said to the boy, "I was impressed with the way you got
yourself out of that situation earlier. We like people who think on their
feet here. Where are you from, son?"

"Canada, sir." the boy replied.

"Well, why did you leave Canada?" the manager asked.

The boy said, "Sir, there's nothing but whores and hockey players up
there."

"Really?" said the manager. "My wife is from Canada."

"No kidding?" replied the boy. "Who'd she play for?"

Today's Music Video

Last night Jay Libardi visited me in a dream.


The only answer that I have found
Above the sky or below the ground
Is that there are no answers
There never were any answers
There will never be any answers
That's the answer.
Now go out and stuff the universe into your eyes.

Neal's Challengers

A Year Before the Vote.

The election results on Tuesday strongly indicated that the political tide is turning against the Democrats just one year after they swept into office on a wave of "hope" with Barack Obama. Of course it's best to take these off year election trends with a grain of salt, since political situations are always very fluid and this year's hero can become next year's goat with amazing speed. Still, the Republican romp at the polls earlier this week should give Democrats reason to pause and reappraise their own electoral safety.

Locally this translates into the surprising development of two - count 'em TWO - people stepping forward to run against entrenched incumbent Congressman Richard Neal, who really hasn't had a strong head to head contest for re-election since Tony Ravosa in 1992. One challenger is Dr. Jay Fleitman, who is the current head of the Board of Health in Northampton.


Dr. Fleitman in Wilbraham

The other is Navy vet Tom Wesley, shown below.



It is hard to tell at this point who is ahead in the contest for the Republican nomination, but for whatever it's worth Wesley has 103 Facebook friends while Fleitman has only a dozen. On the other hand, the Republican establisment seems to like Dr. Fleitman, as indicated by $250 campaign contributions from both George W. Bush and John McCain as well as this photo of Fleitman posing with Michael Steele, the national head of the Republican Party.



From what I've seen, I agree that Fleitman appears to be the stronger candidate. His MD status and already holding a public position in Northampton give him a stature Wesley does not, at least not in this early phase of things. On the other hand, despite his status as a complete unknown Wesley appears to have a lot of initial enthusiasm behind his campaign. In any case the need for a primary will help whichever candidate wins the nomination, because the contest will create media buzz that will give the winner a higher profile and name recognition than they would have had were there no primary. That assumes of course that Fleitman and Wesley have the sense to focus their attacks on Neal and not on each other.

In any case it is nothing short of delightful that after nearly two decades of getting a virtual free ride to Congress, that Richie Neal will finally have to stand before the voters and explain to them why he deserves another term. And best of all he will have to do so while debating an opponent who will no doubt ask him the hard questions our local media has rarely done.

So how is Neal responding to his challengers so far? By playing it very safe. In accordance with the standard incumbent's political playbook, he is refusing to even acknowledge the existence of his opponents until he absolutely has to, lest he give them any free publicity. Neal's office even refused to respond when the newspaper for UMass, where Neal teaches a journalism class called him to question him about Fleitman. But what he's really been doing is grabbing as much money as he can with both hands. According to the Worcester Telegram:



U.S. Rep. Richard E. Neal, D-Springfield, has accumulated the fourth-largest campaign war chest among House incumbents so far in the 2010 election cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan organization that analyzes the campaign finance reports filed by candidates with the Federal Election Commission.

Mr. Neal, who has $2.7 million in cash on hand and has raised almost $750,000 so far this year, is far ahead of the other Massachusetts congressmen, none of whom even makes the top 25 on the list of largest war chests, according to OpenSecrets.org, the center’s Web site.

Mr. Neal, whose district spans the region from Springfield to Milford, is also the only area representative with opposition in 2010. Two candidates — Jay Fleitman and Tom Wesley — are seeking the Republican nomination.

Neal has raised the fourth largest war chest in the entire Congress? That kind of frenzied fundraising makes it look as if Neal's afraid of something. It can't be that he's intimidated by the fundraising of his opponents. Fleitman has reported raising around $35 thousand dollars so far and Wesley $21 thousand. Meanwhile Neal raised nearly $750 thousand dollars in the same period.

But that huge advantage hasn't stopped Neal from collecting as much money as he can from anywhere he can get it. That's because in these uncertain political times just about anything can happen. If the unemployment rate remains above ten percent going into the elections a year from now, there may be a tidal wave of anti-incumbent sentiment that no campaign war chest, however large, can protect him from. That makes the GOP nomination seem less like a booby prize and more like a ticket to ride into Congress.

It's Coming

From the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal:



What was learned Tuesday is that the American voter is absolutely, totally, unremittingly disgusted with both political parties. More than anything, the American voter is desperate for political leadership.

Independent voters are spooked and on the run, a political stampede that veered left in November 2008 and now right a mere year later. They will keep running - crushing incumbents, candidates and political models of the left and right - through 2010 and onto 2012 until they find a person or party capable of leadership appropriate to our unsettled times.

And what do we call it when we reach that point when the public finally dumps the Democrats and Republicans and goes looking for a third alternative? We call it "the libertarian moment."

Toker News

A rare photograph has surfaced of WHMP talker Monte Belmonte with hair! Apparently he never did have much of it, as seen in this photo of him smoking a hookah in what appears to be a sleazy bathroom somewhere. Since he is simultaneously smoking a tobacco cigarette, what's in the pipe?



Incidentally, people have been so busy bashing Maine for its anti-gay vote that they've neglected to notice a victory against the Drug War in that state. Terry Franklin of Amherst explains:



There were 2 victories in Tuesday's election. Question 5 in Maine passed with 58% of the vote -- expanding the medical marijuana laws in that state, and legalizing dispensaries. In Breakenridge, Colorado, the town voted with an astounding 73% to legalize marijuana (under an ounce). This is not decriminalization, it's legalization, there is no fine. Of course, this puts them in direct confrontation with state and federal officials. The fear of such preemption usually gets voters to oppose any such measures, even if they support legalization philosophically. The fact that so many supported open conflict is delicious! The people are so far ahead of the legislators on this issue.

Today's Video

If you laugh real hard you win the game hands down.
WE ARE ALL CREATURES OF FAME LIGHTNESS AND LIBERTY.