Videos- Missouri Caucus 2012: Arrests, Collusion And General Chaos

By Susan Duclos

In February Rick Santorum overwhelmingly won the Missouri primary with 55 percent of the vote, with Mitt Romney coming in second place with 25 percent. Unlike other states, Missouri's primary was labeled nothing more than a beauty contest because Missouri's delegate allotment were not to be decided until March 17-24, 2012, during their caucuses. While most were held on March 17, the state will not be finished with their process until the 24th.

There are 52 delegates tied to the Missouri caucus process.

The process of having a primary and a caucus is unusual but the events that started yesterday became more than a little chaotic as Ron Paul supporters have been arrested, Romney and Paul supporters claim they previously worked out a "deal" to nominate someone to chair the caucus resulting in one caucus for St. Charles County actually adjourning before any delegates were selected. St. Charles was to have selected the highest number of delegates than any single caucus in the state.

St. Louis Today reports of collusion between Romney and Paul supporters in an attempt to shut Santorum down:

Buddy Hardin, a Romney leader and longtime behind-the-scenes force in GOP politics in St. Charles County, alleged that Santorum supporters and caucus organizers sought to close the meeting after they realized that Paul and Romney backers had formed an alliance to share the county’s delegates.

“Once they realized they didn’t have a slate and they wouldn’t get any delegates, they tanked it,” Hardin alleged. He said the shutdown was carried out “to avoid a Santorum embarrassment and loss.”

Karen Fesler, state director for the Santorum campaign, denied that. “We didn’t give any instructions to shut it down,” she said.

Eugene Dokes, the county GOP committee chairman who said he’s uncommitted, said organizers had been trying to select a slate of delegates that reflected the relative strength of all three candidates.

One caucus participant accused Paul and Romney supporters of “colluding” to make it impossible to conduct the meeting. Adrian Boyd, an undecided Republican from St. Peters, said both groups were so loud they drowned out the public address system.

“It was descending into an Occupy Wall Street type of an event,” Boyd said.

St. Charles County caucus chaos video below, showing the reaction when the meeting was adjourned:



Video of Ron Paul Supporter Arrested Outside St. Charles County, Mo. Caucus 03/17/12


In Clay County, arguments between Paul supporters and others became so intense that the caucus chairman threatened to have voters removed by force reports The Kansas City Star.

Videos of Paul supporters causing trouble in Clay County below:






Official results won't be known until next month but the mixture of holding a primary that means nothing, caucuses that have gotten so chaotic no delegates are chosen, collusion between candidate's supporters because they know who to collude against after the results of the primary, arrests and caucuses adjourned before delegates are selected should be enough to convince Missouri that they need a new procedure in the future.

Then the procedure even after their beauty contest primary and their chaotic caucuses further confuses the issue:

Participants in Saturday’s caucuses weren’t actually selecting their choice for presidential nominee. They were selecting delegates who will appear at two larger meetings in April and June, who will in turn select delegates to the national convention in Tampa.

From the Missouri Republican Party:

David Cole, Chairman of the Missouri Republican Party, released the following statement regarding the Missouri caucuses:

“Reports coming in from across the state indicate that a vast majority of the Missouri caucuses were well-run and well-attended. While it is natural that supporters of different candidates will disagree, in most cases, these disagreements were handled in a civil manner.
“In the situations that need additional attention, the State Party is committed to ensuring the delegate selection process is fair.
“I would like to thank our county GOP chairmen for their hard work in the lead up to these caucuses, the elected caucus chairmen for their leadership, and most of all, the thousands of Missourians who attended the caucuses in support of our Republican candidates.
“While no results will be reported, today marked the start of the process that will ultimately bind Missouri’s delegates to the national convention.”

H/T on videos and all day coverage directly from Missouri to The Turner Report.

Related:

Puerto Rico holds their primary today.

(Full GOP Primary/Caucus Schedule HERE)

Is Gingrich Doing The GOP A Favor By Blocking Romney From 1,144 Delegates?

By Susan Duclos


Newt Gingrich is hearing a lot of calls to drop out of the Republican presidential race after coming in second place in Alabama and Mississippi to which Rick Santorum came in first place, Mitt Romney third and Ron Paul last.

For many Republicans and conservative leaning supporters, Newt is doing them a huge favor by continuing. They are people who believe the absolute worst choice for the GOP is a Mitt Romney nomination and that the worst choice for president in 2013 would be Obama and second worst choice would be Mitt Romney because of his political record, changing positions and liberal leanings.

Optics

Both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have made a point that gets mentioned then forgotten.

Santorum from his Alabama and Mississippi victory speech:

People have said, you know, "You're being outspent," and you know, everybody is talking about all the math and all the -- all the things that this race is inevitable.

Well, for someone who thinks this race is inevitable, he's spending a whole lot of money against me for being inevitable.

Newt Gingrich, via ABC News:

"I emphasize going to Tampa, because one of the things tonight proved is that the elite media’s effort to convince the nation that Mitt Romney is inevitable just collapsed."

The optics of Romney winning Hawaii and American Samoa was severely countered by his inability to win down South in Alabama and Mississippi but instead placed third behind Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, despite his campaign and the pro-Romney superPAC, Restore Our Future, inundating the airwaves with campaign ads, outspending all the other candidates combined.

Romney also predicted he would "win Alabama" just a day before he placed third.

They say perception is reality and the optics of Romney not being able to close the deal with conservatives voters across geological divisions is reality. The bad optics of Romney coming in third after all that money spent on campaign ads and predicting an Alabama win, says more than any amount of words could.

Delegate Strategy

Campaign 2012 reports on Gingrich's strategy which is to block Mitt Romney from obtaining the 1,144 delegates a candidate needs to win the Republican nomination for president, thereby forcing the choice to be made at the Republican convention in August.

On election eve, after a long day of campaigning, Gingrich relaxed on a couch at the Wynfrey and vowed to keep challenging Romney through the summer -- long after the primaries have ended. If he can keep the former Massachusetts governor from hitting the 1,144 delegate mark, Gingrich said, "Then on the 26th of June, there's a real conversation. We haven't seen in our lifetime a situation where you actually had a political process beyond who wins the primaries." As he has several times in recent days, Gingrich brought up the case of Leonard Wood, the Army general who ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 1920.

"The reason I keep citing Leonard Wood is because in 1920, Wood goes into the convention as the frontrunner," Gingrich said. "[Warren G.] Harding goes in as the guy who's in sixth place, and at the end of ten ballots, Harding is the nominee and Wood is gone." More than 90 years later, that's the scenario Gingrich sees as his own path to victory.

Does Gingrich think that he would win the nomination if it came to a floor fight?

No one should presume to know what Gingrich's thought processes are and whether he really believes it or not.

With that said, if it did come to a floor fight, it is just as likely that Santorum or Gingrich could walk away with the nomination instead of Romney and that would be the ultimate gift to every person that believes Romney is the absolute worst choice for the nomination and the second worst choice for president behind Obama.

Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics makes a very good point:

Gingrich may or may not believe that he can emerge victorious from such a convention; that’s beyond our understanding right now. But the 68-year-old politician knows he’s a lion in winter, and that this is probably his last campaign. This brings with it a certain amount of freedom. He’ll run the campaign the way he wants to, and play entirely by his own rules. Viewed in this light, going after debate moderators isn’t just playing to the crowd; it’s something he’s probably wanted to do in interviews and campaigns for years now, and hadn’t because consultants warned him off. He’s going to continue doing it his way, right to the end.

There is nothing Gingrich can be threatened with, no incentive anyone can offer him to force him to suspend his campaign. That decision rests solely on him.

March 17, 2012 is the Missouri caucus and in February they held their primary which did not award delegates but Rick Santorum won with 55 percent of the vote, Romney came in a distant second with only 25 percent of the vote.

March 18, 2012 is the Puerto Rico primary, March 20th is the Illinois primary and March 24th is the Louisiana primary. All of which show that Santorum is competitive which goes against the notion of Gingrich being a "spoiler" to Santorum.

(Full GOP Primary/Caucus Schedule HERE)

The Gingrich campaign recently issued a memo stating that Louisiana's primary on March 24 is just the halfway point in the campaign and the former House speaker had succeeded in a goal of blocking "an early Romney nomination."

This echoes a recently leaked memo from the Santorum campaign which outlines a strategy where he could unite voters in Tampa, which is where the Republican convention is to be held in August.

Hot Air's Ed Morrissey makes the point that this strategy is not so different than Gingrich's.

What this memo says is that Santorum wants to stay in the race just in case Romney’s candidacy implodes for some reason. That’s not a bad idea, and it won’t hurt to have an alternative with a functioning campaign if that happens. The same argument can be made for Newt Gingrich, too.

There is no question that Rick Santorum should stay in the race and fight up to the convention and Newt supporters and the anti-Romney bloc of conservatives would prefer to see a convention fight rather than a Romney nominee.

The Convention

A brokered convention occurs when there are not enough delegates “won” during the presidential primaries for a single candidate to have a majority during the first official vote at a party’s nominating convention. The nomination is then decided though political deals between candidates, party bosses and subsequent votes until one candidate receives a majority. (Source)

Both Santorum and Gingrich are betting on Mitt Romney not being able win a majority of the delegates at convention, making it a brokered convention, then the pledged delegates would be released and could switch allegiance for the next round of voting.

If Mitt Romney cannot get the 1,144 delegates before the GOP convention, then he will have proven he is incapable of closing the deal, uniting the Republican and conservative supporters and Gingrich, by staying in the race and helping to block Romney's "inevitable" nomination, will be doing those that refuse to back Romney, a huge favor.

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Live Updates- Kansas GOP Caucus- Santorum Wins

By Susan Duclos

Kansas is holding their caucuses today, March 10, 2012, with 40 delegates (proportional) at stake according to Green Papers. CNN shows 73 percent of the vote tallied (at the time of posting this) and Rick Santorum is leading at this time with 53 percent of the vote. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are battling for second place with Romney showing a one percentage point lead with 17 percent and Gingrich coming in at 16 percent. Ron Paul in last place at this time with 13 percent.

[Update] CNN has projected the winner now as Santorum. Romney still leading Gingrich by 1% and Paul still at 13%.

[Update] With 99 percent of the vote tallied, Santorum won with 51 percent, Romney in second with 21 percent, Gingrich 14 percent and Paul 13 percent.

Santorum and Paul have been actively campaigning in Kansas, Gingrich cancelled his stop there earlier in the week and is focusing on Mississippi and Alabama more and Romney hasn't put much effort into campaigning in Kansas.

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Live Blogging Super Tuesday- Exit Polls, Results and Live Discussion On 3/6/12

By Susan Duclos

[Update] Winners and placements below in alphabetical order:

Alaska- Romney, Santorum, Paul and Gingrich
Georgia- Gingrich, Romney, Sanorum and Paul
Idaho- Romney, Santorum, Paul and Gingrich
Mass.- Romney, Santorum, Paul and Gingrich
North Dakota- Santorum, Romney, Paul and Gingrich
Ohio- Projected Winner, Romney (38%), Sanotrum (37%), Gingrich and Paul [Note- 97% reported at this]
Oklahoma- Sanotrum, Romney,Gingrich and Paul
Tennessee- Santorum, Romney, Gingrich and Paul
Vermont- Romney, Paul, Santorum and Gingrich
Virginia- Romney and Paul (Sanotrum, Gingrich not on ballot)

Joining with Right Pundits, Wake up America readers can join in with the live blogging and live discussions on exit polling and tracking results throughout Super Tuesday beginning at 7pm Eastern on Tuesday, March 6, 2012.

At 7pm ET click on the Cover It Live embed below to start chatting with the group, answer the polling questions, follow the links provided to see real time election results and debate the pro and cons of your preferred candidate.



Watching the Results:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/calendar (Click state)
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries.html (Drop menu for states)
http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012 (Arrow to next state)
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-primary-calendar (Click state)

The ten states holding their contests are, Alaska (caucus)- 27 delegates, Georgia (primary)- 76 delegates, Idaho (caucus)- 32 delegates, Massachusetts (primary)- 41 delegates, North Dakota (caucus)- 28 delegates, Ohio (primary)- 66 delegates, Oklahoma (primary)- 43 delegates, Tennessee (primary)-58 delegates, Vermont (primary)- 17 delegates, and Virginia (primary)- 49 delegates.

(Delegate information via The Green Papers Republican Delegate Allocation)


[Update] Raw Data: Super Tuesday poll opening and closing times

Alaska Caucuses:
Convene: 4 p.m. Alaska time (four hours behind ET)
Close: 8 p.m. Alaska time

Georgia Primaries:
Polls open: 7 a.m. ET
Polls close: 7 p.m. ET

Idaho Caucuses:
Convene: 7 p.m. MT
Close: TBD. Voting takes place in successive rounds. After each round, the candidate receiving the fewest votes and any candidate receiving fewer than 15 percent of the caucus vote are removed from the ballot. Voting continues until a single candidate receives greater than 50 percent of the vote or until a final vote is taken for the final two candidates.

Massachusetts Primary:
Open: 7 a.m. ET
Close: 8 p.m. ET

North Dakota Caucuses:
Convene: 5:30 a.m. CT/MT
Close: 8 p.m. CT/MT

Ohio Primary:
Open: 6:30 a.m. ET
Close: 7:30 p.m ET

Oklahoma Primary:
Open: 7 a.m. CT
Close: 8 p.m. CT

Tennessee Primary:
Open: 7 a.m. ET/CT
Close: 8 p.m. ET/CT

Vermont Primary:
Open: 7 a.m. ET
Close: 7 p.m. ET

Virginia Primary:
Open: 6:00 a.m. ET
Close: 7:00 p.m. ET



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Video- Newt 2012 Releases New Ad: $2.50 Plan In Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama

By Susan Duclos

Hot on the heels of a We Ask America poll showing Gingrich just one point behind Mitt Romney in Tennessee (30 Romney, 29 Gingrich, 29 Santorum), Newt 2012 announced it is going up on the air in Tennessee to sway the remaining undecided voters.

The spot, $2.50 Plan, which will also begin airing in Mississippi and Alabama later this week, outlines Newt Gingrich’s bold energy development plan which will massively increases domestic oil production to lower the price of gasoline to $2.50 per gallon, create millions of new jobs, and improve our national security.

The ad will run today and tomorrow, election day, and is 150 gross rating points.

Video below:




Transcript: (Via Newt.org.)

Since Barack Obama’s inauguration, gas prices have doubled.

They didn’t go down when Obama bowed to Saudi oil princes.

But they can go down under the Newt Gingrich two-fifty per gallon plan.

The Gingrich two-fifty plan slashes gas prices by increasing domestic production, opening up off-shore drilling…building the Keystone Pipeline…cutting red-tape regulation.

The Gingrich two-fifty plan stops the great gas hold up…and puts money back in your pocket.

Newt: I’m Newt Gingrich and I approve this message.

PPP reports:

In Ohio Romney leads with 37% to 36% for Santorum, 15% for Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.

In Tennessee Santorum leads with 34% to 29% for Romney, 27% for Gingrich, and 8% for Paul.

In Georgia Gingrich leads with 47% to 24% for Romney, 19% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

A week ago Santorum had a huge lead in Tennessee, a decent sized one in Ohio, and seemed like he had a good chance for second in Georgia. Now he's barely holding on in Tennessee, ever so slightly behind in Ohio, and seems doomed for third in Georgia.

Romney's fortunes have swung the other direction. What was looking like a runner up finish in Ohio is looking more like a win with each passing day. He has an outside chance at pulling off an upset win in Tennessee. And it looks like he'll finish a solid second in Georgia.

The news for Gingrich is good too. It's been expected he would win Georgia, but it looks now like he could even hit the 50% mark. And he's pulled within striking distance of Santorum and Romney in Tennessee.

Full results here

Tomorrow 10 states hold contests in what is called Super Tuesday and the delegate count for those states is as follows:

Alaska (caucus)- 27 delegates - 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 11 bonus

Georgia (primary)- 76 delegates - 10 base at-large / 42 re: 14 congressional districts / 3 party / 21 bonus

Idaho (caucus)- 32 delegates - 10 base at-large / 6 re: 2 congressional districts / 3 party / 13 bonus

Massachusetts (primary)- 41 delegates - 10 base at-large / 27 re: 9 congressional districts / 3 party / 1 bonus

North Dakota (caucus)- 28 delegates - 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 12 bonus

Ohio (primary)- 66 delegates - 10 base at-large / 48 re: 16 congressional districts / 3 party / 5 bonus

Oklahoma (primary)- 43 delegates - 10 base at-large / 15 re: 5 congressional districts / 3 party / 15 bonus

Tennessee (primary)-58 delegates - 10 base at-large / 27 re: 9 congressional districts / 3 party / 18 bonus

Vermont (primary)- 17 delegates - 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 1 bonus

Virginia (primary)- 49 delegates - 10 base at-large / 33 re: 11 congressional districts / 3 party / 3 bonus (Gingrich, Santorum not on ballot)

(Delegate information via The Green Papers Republican Delegate Allocation)

(1,144 Needed To Win the GOP nomination)

Delegate count to date can be seen at RCP.

Those numbers will change as results from March 6, 2012 contests are reported.

(Join us as we live blog Super Tuesday contests with live discussion via Cover It Live)

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Super Tuesday Republican Primary Polling Updates

By Susan Duclos

Super Tuesday is March 6, 2012, just four days away and there will be 10 states holding Republican primaries or caucuses and for those curious as to where the candidates stand in the polls for the upcoming contests, let the searches begin.

(Join us as we live blog Super Tuesday contests with live discussion via Cover It Live on 3/6/12)

Information on polling dependent on availability.

(Full GOP Primary/Caucus Schedule HERE)

The states to hold primaries or caucuses on March 6, 2012, are;

Alaska (caucus)- 27 delegates - 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 11 bonus

Georgia (primary)- 76 delegates - 10 base at-large / 42 re: 14 congressional districts / 3 party / 21 bonus

Idaho (caucus)- 32 delegates - 10 base at-large / 6 re: 2 congressional districts / 3 party / 13 bonus

Massachusetts (primary)- 41 delegates - 10 base at-large / 27 re: 9 congressional districts / 3 party / 1 bonus

North Dakota (caucus)- 28 delegates - 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 12 bonus

Ohio (primary)- 66 delegates - 10 base at-large / 48 re: 16 congressional districts / 3 party / 5 bonus

Oklahoma (primary)- 43 delegates - 10 base at-large / 15 re: 5 congressional districts / 3 party / 15 bonus

Tennessee (primary)-58 delegates - 10 base at-large / 27 re: 9 congressional districts / 3 party / 18 bonus

Vermont (primary)- 17 delegates - 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 1 bonus

Virginia (primary)- 49 delegates - 10 base at-large / 33 re: 11 congressional districts / 3 party / 3 bonus (Gingrich, Santorum not on ballot)

(Delegate information via The Green Papers Republican Delegate Allocation)

POLLING

ALASKA- No polling information available at this time.

GEORGIA- Rasmussen has Gingrich leading the other candidates with 38 percent, Romney 26 percent, Santorum 20 percent and Paul 7 percent. SurveyUSA has Gingrich leading with 39 percent, Santorum in second with 24 percent, Romney at 23 percent and Paul 9 percent. Landmark/Rosetta Stone has Gingrich leading with 38 percent, Santorum 25 percent, Romney 19 percent and Paul with 5 percent.

IDAHO- No polling information available at this time.

MASSACHUSETTS- Suffolk/7News has Romney leading with 64 percent, Santorum with 16 percent, Paul at 7 percent and Gingrich with 6.

NORTH DAKOTA- No polling information available at this time.

OHIO- Quinnipiac University, the poll released Friday found Santorum leads the former Massachusetts governor 35 percent to 31 percent among likely Republican voters, compared to a poll released Monday showing Santorum with 36 percent to Romney's 29 percent. Gingrich and Paul in third and last place respectively.

OKLAHOMA- Rasmussen has Santorum in the lead with 43 percent, Gingrich in second with 22 percent, Romney 18 and Paul 7.

TENNESSEE- Middle Tn. State U. shows Santorum in the lead with 40 percent, Romney 19 percent, Gingrich 13 percent and Paul with 11 percent. Tennessean/Vanderbilt has Santorum at 38 percent, Romney 20, Paul 15 and Gingrich 13.

VERMONT- Castleton State College has Romney leading with 34 percent, Santorum with 27, Paul 14 and Gingrich 10.

VIRGINIA- Roanoke College polls Romney ahead of Santorum by 31 percent to 27 percent

Note: December 2011 polling had Gingrich ahead for the state of Virginia, but Gingrich and Sanotrum did not make the ballot in Virgina, so the only two that will be on the ballot will be Romney and Paul.

This post will be updated as new polling information becomes available.
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Santorum Rolled Over Romney In Missouri, Minnesota And Colorado

By Susan Duclos

American voters watched three contests last night, a "show" primary in Missouri (the MO. caucuses are on March 17, 2012), caucuses in Minnesota and caucuses in Colorado.

Rick Santorum won in all three contests.


The surprise of the night was the Colorado Caucus results where Santorum won with a 5 percent margin despite expectations across the board of a Romney win, with Intrade even giving Romney a 97 percent chance of winning.

In Missouri, only Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul were on the ballots, Newt Gingrich is on the March 17, 2012 caucus ballot didn't participate in the show primary. Santorum took 55 percent of the vote, Romney took 25 percent and Paul 12 percent.

Note-The Missouri primary is non-binding and has no impact on delegate allocation. Delegate selection begins at county caucuses on March 17. 52 delegates tied to caucus process.

In Minnesota, CNN reports on 95 percent of the vote reported and Santorum took 45 percent, Ron Paul took second place with 27 percent of the vote, Romney third place with 17 percent and Gingrich with 11 percent.

In Colorado, CNN shows 99 percent reporting and has Santorum the winner with 40 percent of the vote, Romney in second place with 35 percent, Gingrich in third place with 13 percent and Paul in fourth with 12 percent.

Note- As per previous statements in the media about focusing on Super Tuesday contests (March 6, 2012, where 10 contests occur in one day) and the Gingrich campaign's schedule, Gingrich spent his day in Ohio campaigning.

As headlines and discussions across the Internet about last night, there is no doubt that Rick Santorum was a big winner coming into this morning.

The biggest losers last night were Romney and every media outlet, every Republican establishment member and anyone else that continued to perpetrate the "Romney is inevitable" meme.

There were other winners last night as well. The anti-Romney voters. Voters that do not want to see Romney get the 1,144 delegates needed to obtain the GOP nomination for President. Voters that would rather this battle be fought right to convention rather than see Romney as the nominee.

AndyZ over at Right Pundits brings me to the next two headlines I noticed over at Memeorandum.

Andy writes:

So why did Rick Santorum win all three elections? A combination of elements contributed to the results. First, Santorum was the least tainted after a nasty dogfight between Romney and Gingrich in Florida. Mitt may have won in Florida, but he won ugly, carpet bombing Gingrich with some 13,000 negative TV ads compared to only 200 aired by Newt. Romney′s favorables have been declining nationwide since then.

He ends his excellent analysis with "Look out, Rick, because you will be carpet bombed by the Romney machine next!"

Good call Andy, because the headlines I referred to are, CNN with "TRENDING: Romney will take tougher approach to Santorum, adviser says," and WSJ with "Front-Runner Is Targeting Santorum."

The pro-Romney SuperPAC, Restore Our Future, has just been given their marching orders: Carpet bomb Santorum.!!!

Next up will be the CNN and the Republican Party of Arizona sponsored GOP primary debate on February 22, 2012, on CNN at 8pm ET held at the Mesa Arts Center in Mesa, Arizona.

Then on February 28, 2012, Michigan and Arizona will be holding primaries.

(Full Republican primary/caucus schedule found HERE)

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Live Blogging/Discussion- Colorado and Minnesota 2012 Caucuses, Exit Polls And Results On 2/7/12

By Susan Duclos

(This post will be bumped to the top all day on 2/7/12)

[Update] CNN reports the projected winner in Missouri is Santorum. 2nd Place for Romney, Paul in 3rd.

[Update] CNN reports the projected winner in Minnesota is Santorum. Paul in 2nd, Romney 3rd and Gingrich 4th place.

[Update] CNN reports the projected winner in Colorado is Rick Santorum.

Will report final totals tomorrow.

Once again Wake up America will be joining Right Pundits as we live blog the Colorado and Minnesota 2012 Caucuses on February 7, 2012, with live discussions on exit polls and results, beginning at 7pm EST.

The Missouri primary, Tuesday, February 7, 2012 will also be covered but that is mostly a "show" primary and on March 17, 2012, Missouri holds their caucuses.

[Update] In fact, the RNC sends out a reminder:

Colorado is a non-binding precinct caucus. Their 36 delegates will be chosen at district conventions held between March 31 – April 13, 2012, and at the state convention on April 14, 2012.

Minnesota is a non-binding precinct caucus. Their 40 delegates will be chosen at district conventions held between April 14 – 21, 2012, and at a state convention on May 5, 2012. Delegates are not bound unless the state convention passes a resolution to bind the delegates.

Missouri will hold a primary tomorrow that is not recognized as being a part of any delegate allocation or selection process.

A precinct caucus will be held on 3/17/2012 to begin the process of choosing their 52 delegates which will be chosen at district conventions on April 21, 2012, and a state convention on June 2, 2012. Candidates for delegate must state a presidential preference at the time of nomination and will be bound to support that candidate for one ballot at the national convention.

(Full Republican primary/caucus schedule found HERE)



Updates will be added throughout the day below the chat feature until it goes live with the discussion, then results will be added on top in the final updates once they are published.

[Update] According to Public Policy Polling, Santorum is headed for a big day in two of the the three contests held today.

Rick Santorum could be headed for a big day in today's contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He's at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.

Santorum's personal popularity is the main reason for his sudden reemergence as a relevant player in the GOP race. In all 3 of these states his favorability is over 70%- 74/17 in Minnesota, 72/17 in Missouri, and 71/19 in Colorado. He's far better liked than his main opponents- Romney's favorability is 47-60% in those states and Gingrich's is 47-48%. While Romney and Gingrich have hammered each other in recents weeks Santorum's been largely left alone and he's benefiting from that now.

If Santorum takes two of these states as polling indicates he might, this would go a long way toward negating the "Romney is inevitable" meme from the media and Republican establishment as well as showing other states before Super Tuesday that Romney cannot fully connect with voters, and cannot close the deal across the country.


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Romney And Republican 'Establishment' Responsible For Destroying GOP Enthusiasm Gap

By Susan Duclos

Back in December USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll showed a 61 to 47 percent enthusiasm gaps favoring Republicans over Democrats.

By the New Hampshire primary, after the Republican establishment attempted to push for the "Romney is inevitable meme," actual Republican turnout for the primaries had dropped 16 percent from the 2008 figures.

When you eliminate independents and Democrats from the 2008 equation, actual registered Republicans made up 61 percent of the roughly 239,000 votes cast in the GOP primary, putting the turnout among Republicans at around 145,790. But last night, actual Republicans only comprised 49 percent of the electorate, according to exits. Even if we round up the final 2012 turnout number to 250,000, which would be slightly higher than current projections, that would only leave actual Republican turnout at 122,500, which would represent a 16 percent drop.

Then Newt Gingrich ran right over Mitt Romney in the South Carolina primary, winning with a 12 percent lead and the Republican establishment started pushing harder and harder against Newt Gingrich and for Mitt Romney.

Pew Research on January 30, 2012, released a report that shows in less than a month, from early January to the end of January, GOP voters rating the field fair or poor rose by 8 percentage points to 52 percent from 44 percent.

Those giving a positive excellent or good ratings to the GOP field dropped from 51 percent to 46 percent.

Then came Florida where Mitt Romney beat Newt Gingrich by 14 percent, but crunching the numbers showed a 14 percent drop from the 2008 figures despite an increase of 25,000 registered Republicans in Florida from four years ago, according to Reuters.

Furthermore:

"They are voting with their feet and simply not showing up," said Christopher Mann, a political science professor at the University of Miami.

Romney won 46 percent of the vote to closest rival Newt Gingrich's 32 percent in Tuesday's primary election.

But Florida Republicans were hardly swept off their feet by the former Massachusetts governor. In exit polls, four in 10 said they were not enthusiastic about their choice of candidates, according to exit polls.

Then we see that all the negative ads seem to be turning voters off as well.

As Southwest Florida heads to the polls, Many say they're frustrated with the barrage of attack ads.

They are direct and at times even back handed.

Romney spent $15 million on radio and TV spots in Florida. Gingrich over $3 million. Voters claim it's distracting them from what's important, hearing the candidates pitch for creating jobs and rejuvenating the economy.

So, lets take a look at where, when and who started with the negative ads.

Iowa, first caucus state, via New York Times:

A pro-Romney “super PAC” that has spent $2.85 million laying waste to Mr. Gingrich in Iowa plans close to $1 million worth of critical ads in Florida and South Carolina — the state Mr. Gingrich identifies as his “firewall,” where he still has a lead.

The concern surfaced in a recent conference call of South Carolina campaign leaders. “It’s something we’re concerned about,” said James Epley, the chairman for Beaufort County. “It’s made us more focused because we’ll have a real fight on our hands.”

The anti-Gingrich attack in Iowa is inescapable: 45 percent of political ads on television during December have been attacks on Mr. Gingrich, according to the Campaign Media Analysis Group.

Many are the work of Restore Our Future, the super PAC supporting Mr. Romney, whose latest ad, “Whoops,” shows Mr. Gingrich admitting he erred in past positions he took on health care and global warming. Earlier attacks by the group hammered him for a consulting deal with Freddie Mac and accused him of “too much baggage.”

Jason Geary, the Gingrich campaign chairman in Woodbury County, said, “I’m on the phone trying to gain support” daily for Mr. Gingrich. He said people were telling him they wanted the candidate to fight fire with fire. “They wish for it,” he added.

The closest Mr. Gingrich has come to responding in kind on the airwaves has been an ad in which he referred to opponents in the mildest of terms, without naming anyone. “Others seem to be more focused on attacks rather than moving the country forward,” he said.

A super PAC that supports Mr. Gingrich, Winning Our Future, has an ad that takes a shot at Mr. Romney as the choice of the “liberal Republican establishment,” but it does not name him and mostly praises Mr. Gingrich as “a principled conservative.”

The group, run by former Gingrich aides, seems constrained by his vow to tell supporters not to contribute to any group that runs attack ads on his behalf.

That same article opines on how senior aides and grass-roots Gingrich supporters insisted that Gingrich had to fight fire with fire.

By the time the candidates hit South Carolina when Gingrich had started to punch back, Gingrich was still outspent by Romney and pro-Romney SuperPACS by 2 to 1, the majority of which were negative ads, but, Romney was trying to rewrite history by stating "I needed to make sure that instead of being outgunned in terms of attacks, that I responded aggressively — and hopefully that will have served me well here", then he added "You know, in South Carolina we were vastly outspent with negative ads attacking me and we stood back and spoke about President Obama and suffered the consequence of that."

But the truth is that Romney outspent Gingrich about 2-1 in South Carolina, and over 4-1 in here the Sunshine State. Romney has also deployed an army of surrogates to bombard Gingrich with negative soundbites and statements. And Gingrich unilaterally withheld from running negative ads in Iowa, and saw his poll numbers collapse in the state amid millions of dollars in attacks from a pro-Romney Super PAC.

One paragraph from LA Times shows a contrast that pro-Romney forces cannot spin.

Last month, Republican strategists pointed to small increases in turnout for the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary and the big jump in South Carolina as evidence that their voters were getting fired up about the campaign to come. Now, the big drop in Florida turnout has caused some to suggest that Romney has failed to excite voters.

Emphasis mine

(Note- The increase in Iowa was due to the participation of Independents and Democrats in the GOP caucus)

What was the difference between South Carolina and Florida? That is right, Gingrich won South Carolina and Romney won Florida.

Romney's over abundance of negativity and the Republican establishments interference because they want to choose who will be the Republican nominee instead of allowing voters to decide for themselves, has destroyed whatever enthusiasm Republicans had for the 2012 elections.

"I spent much of my academic career telling reporters, 'Relax, this is not the most negative campaign ever," said Ken Goldstein, president of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, in an interview with CNN. "Well, this IS the most negative campaign ever." (Source)

The Bottom Line

Republican turnout was down in the states which Romney won and Republican turnout was up in the state Gingrich won.

Romney does not excite conservatives. While many will coalesce behind him if he wins enough delegates to become the Republican nominee, there is another segment that think he is no better than Obama and will not bother voting at all, handing Obama a win for reelection.

*Golf Clap* to the Republican establishment and Mitt Romney for turning what should have been an easy win into a possible defeat.

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Iowa Caucus 2012 Guide

By Susan Duclos

Tomorrow, January 3, 2012 at 7pm CT, the Iowa caucuses will begin the process where residents of Iowa gather in all 1,784 precincts. They will gather in houses, libraries, schools, churches, etc. Attendees will not only vote for their presidential preference choices but will also elect delegates for their country conventions for all of their 99 counties. Those delegates will then choose delegates for the state and district conventions which will eventually choose delegates for the national convention.

After residents gather they will be handed a blank paper, listen to supporters from each candidate, then they will write their choices down which the Republican Party of Iowa will then tally up the numbers and report to the media.

Iowa GOP has a list of caucus locations or you can find a location by country.

Pollsters descended on Iowa this past week, each trying to predict who the winners and losers will be, one of the latest by the Des Moines Register Iowa poll, considered by many pundits as traditionally accurate, shows Rick Santorum surging, Mitt Romney in the lead and Ron Paul in second with the caveat "if the final two days of polling stand alone, the order reshuffles: Santorum elbows out Paul for second."

While Iowa is the first to weigh in on the preference for the GOP presidential nominee, it is only one of many caucuses/primaries scheduled over the next six months and the field will naturally start narrowing in the months leading up to the national convention.

[Update] Caucus morning linkage and live blogging for Caucus night found HERE.

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2012 GOP Primary And Caucus Schedule

By Susan Duclos

Full Primary/Caucus Calendar

Date	State	Results	Delegates	Type	Notes
January 3, 2012	Iowa	Results	28	Caucus
January 10, 2012	New Hampshire	Results	12	Primary
January 21, 2012	South Carolina	Results	25	Primary
January 31, 2012	Florida	Results	50	Primary
February 4, 2012	Nevada	Results	28	Caucus
February 7, 2012	Colorado	Results	36	Caucus	Caucus Information from Colorado GOP
	Minnesota	Results	40	Caucus	Caucus Information (PDF) from Minnesota GOP
	Missouri	Results		Primary	Primary Information from Missouri Secretary of State -The February 7th "beauty contest" primary will not count for delegates toward the 2012 GOP convention. The Missouri Republican Party will hold a caucus on March 17th which will determine the delegates sent to the 2012 GOP convention – See report from CNN
February 11, 2012	Maine	Results	24	Caucus	Caucus Information from Maine GOP
February 28, 2012	Arizona	Results	29	Primary	Primary Information from Arizona Department of State
	Michigan	Results	30	Primary	Primary Information from Michigan Department of State
March 1, 2012	Wyoming	Results	29	Caucus	Caucus Information from Wyoming GOP
March 3, 2012	Washington	Results	43	Caucus	Caucus Information from Washington GOP
March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)	Alaska	Results	27	Caucus	Caucus Information from Alaska GOP
	Georgia	Results	76	Primary	Primary Information from Georgia Department of State
	Idaho	Results	32	Caucus	Caucus Information from Idaho GOP
	Massachusetts	Results	41	Primary	Primary Information from MA Sec. of Commonwealth
	North Dakota	Results	28	Caucus	Caucus Information from North Dakota GOP
	Ohio	Results	66	Primary	Primary Information from Ohio Department of State
	Oklahoma	Results	43	Primary	Primary Information from Oklahoma State Election Board
	Tennessee	Results	58	Primary	Primary Information from Tennessee Department of State
	Vermont	Results	17	Primary	Primary Information from Vermont Department of State
	Virginia	Results	49	Primary	Primary Information from Virginia Board of Elections -Only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul will appear on the VA ballot, see this report
March 10, 2012	Kansas	Results	40	Caucus	Caucus Information from Kansas GOP
	U.S. Virgin Islands	Results	9	Caucus	Caucus Information from VI GOP
	Guam	Results	9	Caucus	Caucus Information from KUAM News
	Northern Mariana Islands	Results	9	Caucus	Caucus Information from Saipan Tribune
March 13, 2012	Alabama	Results	50	Primary	Primary Information from Alabama SOS
	Hawaii	Results	20	Caucus	Caucus Information from Hawaii GOP
	Mississippi	Results	40	Primary	Primary Information from Mississippi SOS
	American Samoa	Results	9	Caucus	Caucus Information from The Green Papers
March 17, 2012	Missouri	Results	52	Caucus	Caucus Information from Missouri GOP -The February 7th "beauty contest" primary will not count for delegates toward the 2012 GOP convention. The Missouri Republican Party will hold a caucus on March 17th which will determine the delegates sent to the 2012 GOP convention – See report from CNN
March 18, 2012	Puerto Rico	Results	23	Primary
March 20, 2012	Illinois	Results	69	Primary	Primary Information from Illinois Elections Board
March 24, 2012	Louisiana		46	Primary	Primary Information from Louisiana SOS
April 3, 2012	District of Columbia		19	Primary	Primary Information from DC Elections Board
	Maryland		37	Primary	Primary Information from Maryland Elections Board
	Wisconsin		42	Primary	Primary Information from Wisconsin GAB
April 24, 2012	Connecticut		28	Primary
	Delaware		17	Primary
	New York		95	Primary
	Pennsylvania		72	Primary
	Rhode Island		19	Primary
May 8, 2012	Indiana		46	Primary	-Thanks to a recount reversing the previous report, Rick Santorum will indeed qualify to be on the Indiana ballot. See this report from the Indy Star on the recount of signatures.
	North Carolina		55	Primary
	West Virginia		31	Primary
May 15, 2012	Nebraska		35	Primary
	Oregon		28	Primary
May 22, 2012	Arkansas		36	Primary
	Kentucky		45	Primary
May 29, 2012	Texas		155	Primary	Due to litigation regarding redistricting, the April 3 date for the Texas primary has been changed to May 29. See this report.
June 5, 2012	California		172	Primary
	Montana		26	Primary
	New Jersey		50	Primary
	New Mexico		23	Primary
	South Dakota		28	Primary
June 26, 2012	Utah		40	Primary

(Source)

(Post updated as changes to the primary occur)
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