Untangling the Republican Delegate Mess

By Guest Writer Greg Lewis


It is theoretically possible that Mitt Romney might not get the requisite number of delegates before the Republican National Convention is held in August, but that’s looking more and more unlikely as the primary season grinds on. Because it could happen, though, here’s a review of the “delegate math,” as well as a look at how it might be skewed by the tangled web of rules spun by the Republican Party and their flouting by a couple of key states.

We've had 28 primaries as of March 24, with the latest, Louisiana, being held today. Here's the delegate "math": Total delegates decided thus far: 1013. Delegate Count: Romney 560, Santorum 246, Gingrich 141, Paul 66 according to Real Clear Politics. Number of delegates left to decide: 1274 (of a total of 2287, although because of RNC rules, some counts differ by four votes). The actual number of delegates up for grabs should be between 2429 and 2433, but there have been penalties levied against Arizona and Florida for holding their winner-take-all primaries before April 1, so the actual number of delegates is down to 2287, with 1144 needed to win.

Romney to this point has captured 55% of the delegates (560/1013 = 55%); Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul together have captured 45% (their combined total is 453; 453/1013 = 45%).

If Romney grabs 55% of the remaining 1274, he'll have an additional 700 delegates and his total will be 1260 (560+700), well above the 1144 needed to win. It’s not certain whether Romney will continue to win at a 55% pace, but the odds are that he will. The delegate math, calculated in this way, indicates that the nomination is his, especially when this delegate math is combined with what I see as a groundswell of Romney support that is broadening throughout the Republican Party and which I think will soon begin to sway more conservative voters.


Enter the Republican National Committee. In the bizarro world of Republican Party delegate counting as dictated by the RNC, we have to take into account the fact that even though the voters in a number of states might select the nominee of their choice, the delegates that represent them aren’t bound to vote as the people who send them to the convention have indicated they want them to.

According to the RNC, the total of so-called “unbound” voters is as follows: Iowa, 28; New Hampshire, 2; Colorado, 36; Minnesota, 40; Missouri, 52; Maine, 24; Wyoming, 29; Washington, 43. That means that there are 254 fewer voters that can be counted as definite, bringing the total of bound votes down to 759. Compounding the confusion, the RNC says that the delegate count “as reported by state parties” totals only 680. The RNC’s presentation of this important data is among the sloppiest and least dependable I have ever encountered. It makes Jon Corzine’s accounting practices look absolutely beyond reproach.

But wait. According to ABC News, the actual count of bound voters is 708. Of these, Romney has 390, the other three combined have 318. As fate would have it, Romney’s total of 390 constitutes almost exactly 55% of the total of 708 unbound votes as ABC counts them, while the three stooges’ total of 318 makes up 45% of the total. At least ABC’s bound-delegate count actually adds up.

Compounding the mess, the RNC has issued a number of rules governing what might happen in case none of the primary candidates shows up at the convention with a majority of the primary votes; that is — I think, though it’s impossible to be certain — if no candidate has at least 1144 votes on the first ballot. There would ensue the most arcane and potentially corruptible sequence of events imaginable, including the following:

• A hearing of petitions from eligible voters in Florida and Arizona is held by the nine-member RNC’s Committee on Contests — you heard that right — which then issues a report that may or may not decide whether additional votes from Florida and Arizona that had been denied because they staged winner-take-all primary elections before the RNC’s mandated April 1 deadline, as elucidated above, should be counted.

• After that, the entire 168-member RNC (three members from each state and territory) considers the petition of “contest” and makes its ruling.

• After that, an appeal of the RNC ruling can be presented by the losing party to the 112-member (two from each voting state/territory) Committee on Credentials, which would then make a third decision and issue a report.

• Finally, whatever the hell decision has been arrived at is presented to the convention at large for its approval. In this stage, amendments can be offered, further complicating the interpretation of what punishment should or should not be meted out to the offending states.

The kicker in all this is that, as much fun as it would be to watch that perverse, self-inflicted three-ring circus unfold, it’s not going to happen this way. Despite the indecipherable tangle of rules and procedures and impediments to a straightforward, clean, no-problems primary election which actually allows voters to decide the candidates that the RNC has managed to put forth, Mitt Romney is the overwhelming favorite to capture the nomination. Pressure on Santorum and Gingrich to withdraw is going to escalate dramatically over the next several weeks, whether or not Santorum wins Louisiana.

People following the primaries closely are going to look for their primary election results, not at the RNC’s morass of rules and rulings and numbers that simply don’t — can’t — add up, but through sources such as Real Clear Politics. If the RNC should suddenly pull a fast one on the eve of the convention and declare that Romney, with more than the 1200-plus votes I’m confident he’ll have accumulated by that time, is not the winner, all hell will break loose, and the Republicans would risk becoming the laughingstock of the political world, possibly throwing away their chances of even fielding a viable candidate by the time the November elections roll around.

Finally, though, the RNC and the influential conservative politicians and kingmakers in Washington D.C. are coalescing behind Romney. He’ll be the consensus candidate before June 1, obviating the need for the RNC to defend the indefensible.

Now if Romney will only announce Florida Senator Marco Rubio as his Vice Presidential running mate . . .


Greg Lewis Ph.D. is the author of The Politics of Anger, which systematically lays out the communist/socialist foundations of the liberal political agenda by examining the important writings of leftist thinkers of the past 75 years.

Lewis also co-authored "End Your Addiction Now : The Proven Nutritional Supplement Program That Can Set You Free."

Greg Lewis.org

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Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii And American Samoa: Note To Romney, Obama Won't Drop Out

By Susan Duclos

Four contests held last night, in Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii and American Samoa.

Alabama- Rick Santorum took first place with 35 percent of the vote and with 99 percent tallied he came in at 214,488 votes cast for him. Newt Gingrich took second place with 29 percent with 182,123 votes cast. Mitt Romney in third at 29 percent with 180,178 votes cast. Ron Paul at 5 percent with only 30,883 votes.

Mississippi- Rick Santorum took first place with 33 percent of the vote and with 99 percent tallied he came in at 93,261 votes cast for him. Newt Gingrich took second place with 31 percent with 88,768 votes cast. Mitt Romney in third at 30 percent with 86,027 votes cast. Ron Paul at 4 percent with only 12,506 votes.

Hawaii- Mitt Romney took first place with 45 percent of the vote and with 99 percent tallied he came in at 4,250 votes cast for him. Rick Santorum took second place with 25 percent with 4,250 votes cast. Ron Paul in third at 18 percent with 1,712 votes cast. Newt Gingrich at 11 percent with only 1,034 votes.

American Samoa- CNN shows Romney as the projected winner but has no percentage of the vote tallied as of this time. No final numbers until they are reported.

NBC’s current delegate count: Romney 419, Santorum 184, Gingrich 136, Paul 34

[Update] As I am reminded via email from Greg Lewis,, it seems as if NBC's delegate numbers are different from AP's via Wapo, so here are those links as well:

From the Washington Post:

"Because delegates are awarded proportionally in both Alabama and Mississippi, Romney won 23 delegates in those two states, compared to 31 for Santorum and 24 for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Georgia), according to the most recent projections by the Associated Press. But Romney captured 14 more delegates than Santorum in Hawaii and American Samoa, AP said, for a net gain of six delegates. That allocation gives Romney 494 delegates, nearly twice as many as Santorum’s 251."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/santorum-wins-in-mississippi-alabama/2012/03/13/gIQATN5SBS_story.html

Then we have NYT, so might as well add that link as well.

CNN's numbers are different than all three of the above linked sources.

Take your pick.

[End Update]

A candidate must reach 1,144 delegates to obtain the nomination and although Romney is the front runner he has not even reached the halfway mark to that magic number and 27 states have already conducted their primaries/caucuses.

(Full GOP Primary/Caucus Schedule HERE)

There are a few lines of thought going around, all dependent which candidate pundits favor and the anti-Romney crowd which would prefer any of the candidates but Romney walk away with the nomination.

Some believe Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul should suspend their campaigns making it a two man race between Romney and Santorum.

Gingrich and many of his supporters believe if he stays in, it is guaranteed that Romney cannot hit the 1,144 mark in delegate count before the August convention and the candidates can fight it out on the convention floor.

Romney supporters believe that if Gingrich and/or Paul drop out of the race and the delegates for the remaining states are divided by two candidates whoever takes first and second in the remaining contests, then Romney could reach the 1,144 mark making him the defacto Republican nominee to go up against Barack Obama in November.

Santorum and his supporters believe if Gingrich drops out then Santorum would gain his supporters but as per a leaked Santorum memo, even his campaign admits that the path to his nomination is not the 1,144 delegate mark but a convention fight.

The anti-Romney crowd, those who support a candidate other than Romney but would throw their support behind any of the GOP candidates except Romney, would prefer all the candidates stay in, collect delegates and block Romney from taking the nomination.

Some claim the anti-Romney sentiment is some type of myth, but having spoken to many who claim they would rather sit out the election rather than cast their vote for Romney which they see as no better than Obama, they do exist and they are very vehement in their opposition to Romney.

Another consideration for pundits is that the Republican convention is not until August.

Some believe that not having one firm candidate before August limits the time the eventual GOP nominee will have to focus on campaigning against Barack Obama. The flip side of that coin is that Barack Obama cannot focus his campaign machine and supporters on any one candidate while there are four candidates consistently and publicly making the case against Obama.

My Take

Romney would prefer the other candidates drop out and unite behind him but the process is in place for a reason and the process is working as it is supposed to. If Mitt Romney cannot get to the 1,144 mark by taking first place in all geographical areas and is dependent on other candidates suspending their campaign to give him the nomination, then how on earth will he unite a country to favor him over Obama.

If there is one definite is this campaign season, it is that Barack Obama will never drop out of the general election and give it to Romney.

If Romney cannot even fight and win over the conservative base, he will never be able to win over the general populace of this country.

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PPP: 'Santorum surges into the lead'

By Susan Duclos

After winning three for three in last Tuesday's primary and caucuses, Rick Santorum has surged into the lead position in national polling, according to Public Policy Polling (PPP).

Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.

Whether this surge is lasting or simply a bounce that will level out remains to be seen, but the Tuesday wins should guarantee that Santorum has the campaign donations to be competitive up until at least Super Tuesday which is on March 6, 2012.

Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics, who has been adamant that the GOP race would not conclude with a brokered convention is saying that now he sees a "viable path to a brokered convention is beginning to emerge," as he breaks down the demographic and geographic splits among candidates and details how it is possible that no one candidate will obtain the 1,144 delegates needed to to take the Republican nomination, before the 2012 GOP Convention August 27-30th, 2012, in Tampa, Florida.

For conservative voters unhappy with a possible Mitt Romney nomination, this is good news. Newt Gingrich has consistently said Romney cannot reach the delegates needed before convention and with Santorum's wins, the Anti-Romney crowds, and Gingrich's lead in Georgia and focusing on the Southern states, he may be right.

Romney cannot connect with conservatives, especially when they laugh at his calling himself "severely conservative."

Romney's previous record has shown he is more a tax and spend liberal hiding in Republican clothing.

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